Match report →
Alverca – Casa Pia1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Alverca
1.47
Total xG
2.40
Casa Pia
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Alverca | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.59 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.58 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Lawrence Ofori on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Alverca is 11th in the league with 11 points from 10 games, Casa Pia is 17th with 7 points
- Attack: Casa Pia has scored 0.5 goals per game in the league this season, Alverca averages 1.3 goals per game
Risks
- Home/Away: Casa Pia concedes 0.8 goals per game away in the league this season, Alverca concedes 1.2 per game at home
All probabilities
Result
Alverca48%
Draw30%
Casa Pia22%
Double chance
Alverca or draw78%
Casa Pia or draw52%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.47 : 0.93, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Alverca: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Vivaldo Semedo: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Alverca: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
Lineups
Alverca 3-4-3 · Casa Pia 4-3-3
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 12 I. James
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 25 I. Baroni Boetto
- 6 D. Gui
- 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
- 10 Chiquinho
- 19 D. Camara Sankharé
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Casa Pia
- 1 P. Sequeira Mejías
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 43 David Sousa
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 70 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 29 J. Livolant
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
- 77 B. Pauwels
Substitutes
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 7 A. Cunha Vidigal
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
- 35 R. Marques de Souza
- 3 J. Martinez Crisanto
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 14 S. Baseya
- 8 V. Silva Moreira
- 23 A. Eusébio Paulo
- 26 M. França de Oliveira
- 93 J. Vivian
- 24 E. Jemide
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 90 C. Dias Moreira
- 80 L. Ofori
- 10 D. Costa Rocha
- 95 I. Mandić
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 59 A. Dafe
- 11 M. El Boukammiri
- 17 E. Maurin
- 44 F. da Silva
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →