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Vitória Guimarães – Porto1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Vitória Guimarães
1.03
Total xG
2.73
Porto
1.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória Guimarães | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.78 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.69 | |
| Attack strength (1.65x league average) | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| André Silva not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Porto rank 1st in the league this season with 10 wins from 10 matches, Vitória Guimarães are 13th with 2 wins
- Head-to-head: Porto have won 3 of the 4 previous meetings, Vitória Guimarães 0
- Attack: Porto have scored 2.5 goals per match in the league this season, Vitória Guimarães 1 goal per match
Risks
- Home: Vitória Guimarães have conceded 0.4 goals per match in 5 home league matches this season
- xG: Vitória Guimarães produced 1.58 xG per match in 10 matches with xG data, but scored 1 goal per match
All probabilities
Result
Vitória Guimarães22%
Draw27%
Porto51%
Double chance
Vitória Guimarães or draw49%
Porto or draw78%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.04 : 1.70, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Vitória Guimarães: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Borja Sainz: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Porto: 8 of 27 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Vitória Guimarães: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Vitória Guimarães: 80% of all goals in the second half (8 of 10, last 12 games)
Lineups
Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1 · Porto 4-3-3
Vitória Guimarães
- 98 L. Furtado dos Santos
- 23 T. Strata
- 21 T. Borevković
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 13 João Mendes
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 7 O. Camara
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 11 G. da Silva Cunha
- 9 A. Jakupovic
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 12 Z. Sanusi
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
- 9 S. Omorodion Aghehowa
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
Substitutes
- 44 L. Doucet
- 19 V. Andersson
- 48 O. Zych
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 6 M. Mitrovic
- 24 A. Ndoye
- 10 A. de Souza Guimarães
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
- 29 V. Ouotro
- 40 M. Kebdani
- 42 S. Fofana
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 16 I. Hwang
- 21 D. Prpić
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 22 A. Varela
- 77 O. Pietuszewski
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 74 F. Moura
- 18 N. Pérez
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
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