Premier League
Newcastle United - Aston Villa
01/25/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.4
1.6
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
39%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
82%
Over 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
61%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Both teams are significantly weakened by injuries to key players, especially in midfield (Guimarães for Newcastle, Kamara for Villa), making the game unpredictable
- Newcastle's recent attacking trend (3.0 goals average) meets a Villa defense that struggles away from home (1.6 goals conceded average), suggesting goals are likely
- Although Aston Villa is higher in the table, Newcastle's current unbeaten form (WWDDW) speaks in favor of the home team
Risk Factors
- The high number of injuries on both sides could completely alter the expected game structure and lead to an unexpected result
- The extremely high goal rate at St. James' Park (4.4 goals/game) is a statistical outlier, and there is a risk that this match could be more tactical and lower-scoring
- The form data for Aston Villa is contradictory (poor form in the league table vs. good form in the last 5 games), making it difficult to assess their current strength
Overview
Newcastle United (9th place, 33 points) hosts Aston Villa (3rd place, 43 points) at St. James' Park
The Premier League match will take place on January 25, 2026, at 3:00 PM
This is a clash between a mid-table team and a title contender, with the visitors favored according to the standings
Form
Newcastle United: WWDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
From the last 5 matches, Newcastle has secured 3 wins and 2 draws, remaining unbeaten
Aston Villa: WDWLW
Aston Villa has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Both teams are in strong form, with Newcastle on a longer unbeaten streak
Statistics
Offensively, both teams are very similar with a goal average of 1.45 (Newcastle) and 1.50 (Aston Villa) per game
Defensively, Aston Villa is slightly more stable with 1.14 goals conceded per game compared to Newcastle's 1.23
Newcastle is significantly stronger defensively at home (1.0 goals conceded) than Villa is away (1.6 goals conceded)
St. James' Park sees an average of 4.4 goals per game, with 80% of matches having over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Newcastle United has the upper hand with 3 wins, while Aston Villa has won only once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in Newcastle's favor at 12:6
The last meeting ended in a 0-0 draw
Key Players
Bruno Guimarães is a key player for Newcastle with 8 goals this season
Harvey Barnes is in impressive form with 5 goals in his last 5 games
Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers are the main attacking threats for Aston Villa, each with 7 goals this season
Goalkeepers
Nick Pope will be in goal for Newcastle, having kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches this season
Due to Emiliano Martínez's injury, Marco Bizot is expected to play for Aston Villa
The Aston Villa team has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
The home advantage for Newcastle could play a role, as they have a record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses on grass
Aston Villa has a strong away record on grass with 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The statistics for St. James' Park suggest a high-scoring game, with an average of 4.4 goals per match in recent fixtures