Premier League
Everton - Leeds United
01/26/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.8
1.5
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
33%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
38%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Leeds' away defensive weakness: Leeds concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game, presenting a major opportunity for Everton's attack
- Offensive form of both teams: Both sides are recently scoring more goals than their season average, suggesting an open match
- Everton's personnel issues: Despite compensated goal production, the absence of key midfielders like Dewsbury-Hall and Grealish could disrupt their build-up play
Risk Factors
- Everton's midfield absences: The lack of creative players like Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall could significantly hamper Everton's ability to create chances
- Leeds' unpredictable defense: While their away vulnerability is a risk, a surprisingly solid performance could change the game entirely
- Historical record: Everton has dominated recent head-to-head encounters, which could put Leeds under psychological pressure despite balanced current form
Overview
Everton (11th place, 32 points) hosts Leeds United (16th place, 25 points) at Hill Dickinson Stadium. The Premier League match will take place on January 26, 2026, at 9:00 PM. It's a mid-table clash where both teams will be looking to pull away from the lower half.
Form
Everton: WLDDW - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games
Leeds United: DDLWW - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games
Both teams have an identical record in their recent form. Leeds United has won their last two matches. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Leeds United has a slight edge with an average of 1.36 goals per game compared to Everton's 1.09. Defensively, Everton is more stable, conceding an average of 1.14 goals, while Leeds United concedes 1.68 goals per game. Leeds' defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, with an average of 3.0 goals conceded per game. Leeds' matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 13 out of 22 cases, compared to just 7 out of 22 for Everton.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Everton has won 2, Leeds United has won 1, and there have been 2 draws. The goal difference is 7:4 in favor of Everton. Everton is considered the recently dominant team.
Key Players
For Everton, James Garner stands out with a rising form, 2 season goals, and 3 assists. Thierno Barry has scored 4 goals this season. For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the top scorer with 9 season goals. Brenden Aaronson is also in good form, contributing 4 goals and 3 assists.
Goalkeepers
Everton's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has kept 9 clean sheets in 22 matches this season. Karl Darlow of Leeds United has played in 6 matches this season, with the team keeping a total of 4 clean sheets.
Influences
At Hill Dickinson Stadium, there is an average of 2.8 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 60% of the matches. Everton has a record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses on a grass surface. Leeds United has a strong away record on this surface with 4 wins, 5 draws, and only one loss.