Premier League
Burnley - Tottenham Hotspur
01/24/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.8
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
37%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
38%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
63%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Tottenham's massive injury crisis, with key players like Richarlison, Bentancur, and Kudus sidelined, significantly weakens the team
- The venue, Turf Moor, is known for high-scoring matches (3.8 goals on average), suggesting an open game, especially against Burnley's vulnerable defense (1.91 goals conceded/game)
- Burnley's attack shows a positive trend (recently 1.8 goals/game) in contrast to Tottenham's declining goal threat (recently 1.4), which could shift the dynamic despite the gap in the standings
Risk Factors
- Tottenham's historical dominance in head-to-head encounters (5 wins in the last 5 games) could be a psychological factor despite current injury concerns
- The high number of key player absences on both sides makes the game's dynamic unpredictable, as the performance of substitute players is uncertain
- The prediction model favors Tottenham (1.67 vs 1.13 expected goals), which contradicts the on-paper reality of their depleted squad
Overview
Burnley, in 19th place with 14 points, hosts Tottenham Hotspur, in 14th place with 27 points, at Turf Moor
The Premier League match takes place on January 24, 2026, at 4:00 PM
Burnley is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Tottenham aims to stabilize a disappointing season
Form
Burnley form: LLDWD
From the last 5 matches, the team has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Tottenham Hotspur form: DLLLW
The visitors have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games
Both teams are going through a difficult phase
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Tottenham has the edge with an average of 1.41 goals per game compared to Burnley's 1.05
Defensively, Burnley is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.91 goals, while Tottenham concedes 1.32
Matches at Turf Moor are often high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in recent fixtures
In 80% of the last games at the stadium, both teams scored, and 80% had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Tottenham Hotspur has clearly dominated with 5 wins
Burnley failed to win any of these matches
The goal difference of 12:3 is strongly in favor of Tottenham
The last meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for Spurs in August 2025
Key Players
For Burnley, Jaidon Anthony stands out with 5 season goals and a rising form trend
Marcus Edwards has contributed 2 assists this season
For Tottenham, Cristian Romero is a key factor in defense, who has also scored 3 season goals and shows a rising form
Wilson Odobert is also in improving form, having been involved in 3 goals in the last 5 games (1 goal, 2 assists)
Goalkeepers
Burnley's goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka has kept 3 clean sheets this season and is showing a rising form trend
His counterpart, Guglielmo Vicario of Tottenham, has 7 clean sheets, but his form is rated as declining
Influences
The statistics for Turf Moor suggest a high-scoring game, with an average of 3.8 goals and a high 80% rate for 'Both Teams to Score'
Both teams play on natural grass, which should not give either a particular advantage
Burnley's home record on this surface is weak, with only one win from 10 games