Premier League
West Ham United - Sunderland
01/24/2026, 12:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.0
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
31%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- West Ham's improved offense (averaging 1.4 goals recently) meets Sunderland's extremely vulnerable away defense (2.8 goals conceded per game)
- The large gap in the league table (9th vs 18th) is contrasted by West Ham's recent positive trend (two consecutive wins)
- The absence of West Ham's key midfielder L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima (Lucas PaquetĂĄ) could significantly impact their creativity and goal-scoring ability
Risk Factors
- Although Sunderland are weak away, their overall defense (1.05 goals conceded avg) is solid. If they can replicate that form, West Ham might struggle to score without PaquetĂĄ
- The historical head-to-head is balanced, and Sunderland won the last meeting 3-0, showing they are capable of getting a result
- West Ham's home defense is very porous, conceding 2.08 goals per game, which could give opportunities even to a modest Sunderland attack
Overview
West Ham United (18th place, 17 points) host Sunderland (9th place, 33 points) at the London Stadium
The Premier League match takes place on January 24, 2026, at 1:30 PM
This is a crucial game for West Ham in their fight against relegation, while Sunderland aims to solidify their mid-table position
Form
West Ham United: DLLWW - 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in their last five games
Sunderland: DDLDW - 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in their last five games
West Ham shows improving form with two consecutive wins
Sunderland is hard to beat but has struggled to secure wins recently
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, both teams are nearly identical with a goal average of 1.09 (West Ham) and 1.05 (Sunderland) per game
Defensively, Sunderland is significantly more stable with only 1.05 goals conceded per game, compared to West Ham's 2.00
A key vulnerability for both teams is evident in their respective home/away records: West Ham concedes an average of 2.08 goals at home, while Sunderland concedes an even higher 2.80 goals away
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, West Ham United won 2 times, Sunderland won 1 time, and 2 games ended in a draw
The goal difference is 6:7 from West Ham's perspective
Sunderland won the last encounter decisively 3-0
Key Players
For West Ham, Jarrod Bowen is the top scorer with 6 season goals
Crysencio Summerville is in rising form, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances
For Sunderland, Enzo Le FĂ©e is a crucial player with 3 season goals and 4 assists, and is in strong recent form with 2 goals in his last five matches
Brian Brobbey has also scored 2 goals in the last five games for Sunderland
Goalkeepers
Alphonse Areola is in goal for West Ham, a team that has kept only one clean sheet this season
Robin Roefs is the goalkeeper for Sunderland, whose team has already managed seven clean sheets
Influences
The London Stadium has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals per match in the last five fixtures
In 80% of these games, both teams scored, and the total goals were over 2.5
Both teams are accustomed to playing on a grass surface, so neither side has a particular advantage