Premier League
Leeds United - Arsenal
01/31/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.8
2.2
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
24%
Away Win
47%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
80%
Over 3.5
55%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
53%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
72%
No
28%
Key Factors
- Historical Dominance: Arsenal has won the last 5 encounters against Leeds, with a goal difference of 16:3
- Statistical Superiority: Arsenal is significantly stronger both offensively (1.83 goals/game) and defensively (0.74 goals conceded/game) than Leeds
- Current Goal Threat: Arsenal is currently scoring even more frequently (3.0 goals per game in recent matches) than their already strong season average (1.83)
Risk Factors
- Arsenal's Fatigue: The team has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to exhaustion
- Leeds' Home Defensive Strength: At home, Leeds concedes only 0.93 goals per game, which could make it difficult for Arsenal's attack
- Leeds' Missing Firepower: The absence of attacker L. Nmecha (5 season goals) weakens an already inferior offense
Overview
Leeds United, in 16th place with 26 points, hosts league leaders Arsenal with 50 points at Elland Road
The Premier League match takes place on January 31, 2026, at 4:00 PM
This is a classic clash between a title contender and a team from the bottom half of the table
Form
Leeds United form: DLWWD - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last five matches
Arsenal form: WDWLW - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last five matches
Arsenal is in slightly better form than Leeds United
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, Arsenal is stronger with an average of 1.83 goals per game compared to Leeds United's 1.35
Defensively, Arsenal is significantly more stable with only 0.74 goals conceded per game, compared to Leeds (1.65)
Arsenal has kept 11 clean sheets this season, while Leeds has managed 4
Matches at Elland Road average 3.6 goals, and in 80% of the last five games, both teams scored
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Arsenal has won every single match
The goal difference from these meetings is clearly in Arsenal's favor at 16:3
The last meeting ended with a decisive 5-0 victory for Arsenal
Key Players
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Leeds United's top scorer with 9 goals this season
Brenden Aaronson is showing strong performance with 3 goals in his last 5 games and a rising form trend
For Arsenal, Gabriel Jesus is in excellent form, having scored 3 goals in his last 5 appearances
Leandro Trossard has contributed 5 goals and 4 assists so far this season
Viktor Gyökeres has scored 5 goals for Arsenal this season
Goalkeepers
For Leeds United, Lucas Perri (16 appearances) and Karl Darlow (7 appearances) have been in goal; the team achieved a total of 4 clean sheets
David Raya has been in goal for Arsenal in 23 season matches, helping to keep 11 clean sheets
Influences
Elland Road is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals per match in the last five fixtures
Both teams scored in 80% of Leeds' last five home games
Arsenal has a superior record on grass with 7 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss in the last 10 games