Premier League
Aston Villa - Brentford
02/01/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.9
2.3
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
29%
Away Win
48%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
52%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
78%
No
22%
Key Factors
- Defensive Home Advantage: Aston Villa's extremely strong home defense (0.75 goals conceded/game) meets Brentford's very weak away defense (2.5 goals conceded/game)
- Contrasting Form Trends: Aston Villa comes in with the momentum of three consecutive wins, while Brentford has lost their last two matches
- Clash of Strikers: The match could be decided by the performance of top strikers Ollie Watkins for Villa and the prolific Igor Thiago (16 season goals) for Brentford
Risk Factors
- Contradictory Data: The goal prediction (2.32 for Brentford) strongly favors the visitors, which contradicts Villa's league position, form, and strong home record
- Potential Villa Fatigue: Aston Villa has had only three days of rest since their last match, which could be a factor for fatigue
- Injury Concerns: Key players like Ollie Watkins are listed as doubtful, which could weaken Villa's attack even though he is in the starting lineup
Overview
Aston Villa, in 3rd place with 46 points, host Brentford, 9th with 33 points, at Villa Park
The Premier League match takes place on February 1, 2026, at 3:00 PM
Aston Villa aims to solidify its position at the top of the table, while Brentford looks to close the gap in the mid-table
Form
Aston Villa form: WLWWW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss)
Brentford form: WWWLL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)
Aston Villa is in strong form with three consecutive wins
Brentford, on the other hand, has lost its last two games after a winning streak
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Both teams score an average of 1.52 goals per game this season
Defensively, Aston Villa is more stable with 1.09 goals conceded per game compared to Brentford's 1.39
The home and away difference is particularly striking: Aston Villa concedes only an average of 0.75 goals at home
Brentford is very vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, there have been 2 wins for Aston Villa, 1 win for Brentford, and 2 draws
The overall goal difference is 8:6 in favor of Aston Villa
The last meeting between the two teams ended in a 1:1 draw
Key Players
For Aston Villa, Morgan Rogers (7 goals, 5 assists) and Ollie Watkins (8 goals, 1 assist) are the key offensive players
Emiliano BuendĂa is showing rising form with 5 goals and 2 assists
For Brentford, Igor Thiago is the standout striker with 16 goals this season
Kevin Schade also contributes significantly to the attack with 6 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Aston Villa's goalkeeper Emiliano MartĂnez has kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches this season
Brentford's CaoimhĂn Kelleher has managed 5 clean sheets in 23 games
MartĂnez is particularly strong at home, having kept his goal clean in 4 matches already
Influences
At Villa Park, there's an average of 3.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of the matches
Aston Villa has a strong home record on grass with 7 wins in 10 games
Brentford also has a solid record with 5 wins from 10 away games on grass