Premier League
AFC Bournemouth - Aston Villa
02/07/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.1
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
29%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
40%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Contrast in form: Bournemouth's strong run (5 games unbeaten) meets Aston Villa's dip in form (a recent loss), leveling the playing field despite the league table gap
- Offensive potential: Both teams have scoring capabilities and their tactical data suggests an open match, supported by the venue's high goal average of 3.4 goals/game
- Historical dominance: Despite their current form crisis, Aston Villa is unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head matches (3 wins, 2 draws) and won the last game decisively 4-0
Risk Factors
- Aston Villa's form crisis: The visitors have lost their strong form, and their goal production has recently decreased according to advanced stats
- Bournemouth's defensive vulnerability: Conceding an average of 1.79 goals per game this season, Bournemouth's defense remains a potential weakness
- Numerous injuries: Both teams have a long list of sidelined players, which could affect team chemistry and available options
Overview
AFC Bournemouth (12th place, 33 points) hosts Aston Villa (3rd place, 46 points) at the Vitality Stadium
The Premier League match takes place on February 7, 2026, at 4:00 PM
It's a clash between a mid-table team and a title contender, with contrasting form curves creating excitement
Form
AFC Bournemouth: WDDWW - 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in the last 5 games
Aston Villa: LWWWL - 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 games
Bournemouth is unbeaten in five matches, while Aston Villa suffered a defeat recently after three consecutive wins
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Bournemouth is slightly more dangerous with 1.67 goals per game compared to Aston Villa's 1.46
Defensively, Aston Villa is significantly more stable with only 1.08 goals conceded per game, compared to Bournemouth's 1.79
In home games, Bournemouth concedes an average of just 1.18 goals
Both teams scored in 16 of 24 Bournemouth matches, while for Aston Villa this was the case in 12 of 24 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head encounters, AFC Bournemouth has not secured a win, while Aston Villa won 3 times and 2 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Aston Villa at 11:4
The last meeting ended in a 4-0 victory for Aston Villa, who are considered the recently dominant team
Key Players
For AFC Bournemouth, Antoine Semenyo with 10 season goals and Eli Kroupi with 8 goals are the top scorers
Marcus Tavernier has contributed 5 goals and 3 assists
For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins is the most prolific player with 8 goals, followed by Morgan Rogers with 7 goals and 5 assists
Emiliano BuendĂa has been directly involved in 7 goals this season (5 goals, 2 assists)
Goalkeepers
Bournemouth's goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic has kept 6 clean sheets in 24 season appearances
Aston Villa's Emiliano MartĂnez has managed 7 clean sheets in 20 appearances
Influences
The Vitality Stadium is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five matches
Both teams have scored in 80% of these games
Aston Villa has a better record on grass surfaces (6 wins in 10 games) than Bournemouth (3 wins in 10 games)