Premier League
Burnley - West Ham United
02/07/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
3.1
1.8
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
25%
Away Win
46%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
54%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- West Ham's superior offense (1.21 goals/game, 5.0 shots on target) meets Burnley's vulnerable defense (1.96 goals conceded/game)
- West Ham's significantly better recent form (3 wins in 5 games) compared to Burnley's (1 win in 5) provides a crucial mental edge
- The historical record favors West Ham, who are unbeaten in the last five head-to-head encounters
Risk Factors
- Both teams have extremely weak defenses, conceding nearly two goals per game on average, making the match unpredictable
- As a direct relegation battle, the high pressure could lead to an error-prone or overly cautious game
- Despite being favorites, West Ham has a poor away record, giving Burnley a chance
Overview
A crucial Premier League relegation battle takes place on February 7, 2026, at 4:00 PM at Turf Moor
Burnley (19th place, 15 points) hosts West Ham United (18th place, 20 points)
Both teams are fighting for vital points to escape the relegation zone
Form
West Ham United has shown stronger form in recent matches
Burnley: DWDDL - 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss
West Ham United: LWWWL - 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses
According to trend analysis, both teams have a positive form curve, though West Ham has secured more victories
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Both teams have significant defensive problems this season
Burnley scores an average of 1.04 goals per game and concedes 1.96
West Ham United scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 2.00
At Turf Moor, the last five matches have seen an average of 3.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of cases
Both teams scored in 14 of Burnley's 24 league games, and in 15 of West Ham's
Head-to-Head
The recent head-to-head record clearly favors West Ham United
In the last five meetings, Burnley remained winless, while West Ham won twice and three matches ended in a draw
The goal difference from these games is 8:6 in favor of West Ham
The last encounter was won 3-2 by the visitors
Key Players
Jaidon Anthony is a key factor for Burnley with 5 season goals and a rising form trend
Zian Flemming has also scored 5 goals for the home team
For West Ham, Jarrod Bowen is the most dangerous attacker with 8 goals and 2 assists
Crysencio Summerville is in stunning form, having scored 4 goals in his last 5 appearances
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeper matchup is Martin Dúbravka for Burnley and Mads Hermansen for West Ham United
Dúbravka has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Areola, West Ham's main keeper, has kept one clean sheet this season
Influences
Burnley's home advantage is statistically minimal, with only one win in 10 home games on natural grass
Turf Moor is known for high-scoring games, with over 2.5 goals in 80% of the last five matches
West Ham has lost six of their ten away games on natural grass, indicating a weakness on the road