Premier League
Leeds United - Nottingham Forest
02/06/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.2
1.5
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
28%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
44%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Relegation Battle Intensity: With both teams level on 26 points, this six-pointer match will be fiercely contested, potentially leading to a cautious or a very open game
- Home vs. Away Vulnerability: Leeds' strong home defense (1.13 goals conceded avg) contrasts sharply with Nottingham Forest's away record (1.55 goals conceded avg), giving the home side a defensive edge
- Contrasting Tactical Approaches: Leeds' more attacking style (5.4 shots on target avg) meets Nottingham Forest's counter-attacking setup (3.6 shots on target avg), which could dictate the flow of the game
Risk Factors
- Nottingham Forest's H2H Dominance: Forest has won 3 of the last 5 meetings, including the most recent one, which could provide a psychological advantage
- Leeds' Significant Absences: Leeds are missing key players like Anton Stach and Lukas Nmecha, impacting their midfield and attack despite the available firepower
Overview
Leeds United, currently 16th with 26 points, host 17th-placed Nottingham Forest, who have also accrued 26 points, at Elland Road
This Premier League fixture on February 6, 2026, at 8:00 PM is a crucial relegation battle, with both teams level on points and fighting to pull away from the drop zone
Form
Leeds United's recent form is LWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches
Nottingham Forest come into the game with a form of DLWWD, securing 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five fixtures
Statistics
Leeds United averages 1.29 goals scored per game this season, compared to Nottingham Forest's 1.00
At home, Leeds is defensively stronger, conceding an average of 1.13 goals, while their overall season average is 1.75 conceded
Nottingham Forest has failed to score in 11 of their 24 matches this season
Games at Elland Road have seen an average of 3.6 total goals recently, with both teams scoring in 60% of those matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Nottingham Forest has had the upper hand with 3 wins to Leeds United's 1, and 1 match ending in a draw
The goal difference stands at 8-4 in favor of Forest
The most recent match between the two sides was won by Nottingham Forest with a score of 3-1
Key Players
Dominic Calvert-Lewin leads the line with 9 season goals
Brenden Aaronson has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists, while Anton Stach has also provided 3 goals and 3 assists
Morgan Gibbs-White is a key figure with 6 goals and 2 assists
Callum Hudson-Odoi has scored 3 goals this season, and Igor Jesus has recently shown good form with 3 goals in his last 4 appearances
Goalkeepers
For Leeds United, Karl Darlow has made 8 appearances and Lucas Perri has made 16
The team has kept 4 clean sheets in total this season
Nottingham Forest's primary goalkeeper has been Matz Sels with 20 appearances, contributing to the team's 5 clean sheets for the season
Influences
The home advantage at Elland Road is significant, as reflected in Leeds' stronger defensive record at home (1.13 goals conceded vs. 2.78 away)
The venue has recently seen high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals per match
Both teams are accustomed to playing on a grass surface, so this is unlikely to be a deciding factor