Premier League
Newcastle United - Brentford
02/07/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.7
2.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
23%
Away Win
56%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
40%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
44%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
70%
No
30%
Key Factors
- Brentford's expected goal output (2.35) is significantly higher than Newcastle's (1.39), indicating a clear attacking advantage
- Brentford is very vulnerable defensively away from home (2.22 goals conceded per game), while Newcastle is solid at home (1.06 conceded), suggesting goals for both sides
- Despite numerous injuries for both teams, the core offensive power for both squads is on the pitch according to data analysis
Risk Factors
- Newcastle is suffering from an extensive injury list, particularly in defense, which could affect their stability
- Brentford's glaring defensive weakness away from home (2.22 goals conceded per game) is a significant risk and could open up scoring opportunities for Newcastle
Overview
Newcastle United (11th place, 33 points) hosts Brentford (7th place, 36 points) at St. James' Park
A Premier League match on February 7, 2026, 6:30 PM
This is a mid-table clash where the visitors have a slight points advantage
Form
Newcastle United: DWLDL - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses
Brentford: WWLLW - 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses
Brentford shows better form in the last five matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, Brentford scores slightly more on average this season (1.5 per game) than Newcastle (1.38)
Defensively, Brentford is also slightly more stable, conceding an average of 1.33 goals, compared to Newcastle's 1.38
Newcastle is solid defensively at home, conceding only 1.06 goals per game
Brentford is defensively vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.22 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 3 wins for Newcastle United and 2 wins for Brentford
The goal difference is 12-11 in favor of Newcastle United
The last encounter was won by Brentford with a score of 3-1
Key Players
Bruno Guimarães has scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists for Newcastle this season
Nick Woltemade is another key attacker with 7 goals
For Brentford, Igor Thiago is the standout scorer with 16 goals this season
Kevin Schade has also played a crucial role with 6 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Newcastle United's Nick Pope has kept 7 clean sheets this season
Brentford's Caoimhín Kelleher has kept a clean sheet 6 times
Influences
Games at St. James' Park have recently been high-scoring, with an average of 4.0 goals per game
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the last matches here
Brentford has a strong away record on grass, with 6 wins in 10 matches