Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United
02/10/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.7
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
28%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
32%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- CRITICAL WEAKENING: Tottenham lose 51% of their goal threat through absences of Richarlison (7G/4A), Kudus (2G/5A) and Romero (4G/1A)
- AWAY PROBLEMS: Newcastle concede average 2.0 goals per away game - double their home rate (1.18)
- HISTORICAL DOMINANCE: Newcastle unbeaten in last 5 direct meetings (4 wins, 1 draw) with goal ratio 12:4
Risk Factors
- Massive injury list at Tottenham: 11 absentees including key players like Romero, Richarlison and Kudus
- Newcastle lose defensive control away: Average 2.0 goals conceded per away game
Overview
Tottenham Hotspur (14th place, 29 points) host Newcastle United (12th place, 33 points) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Premier League match on February 10, 2026, 8:30 PM
Slight advantage for the visitors despite home ground
Both teams fighting for upper table positions
Form
Tottenham: WDWDL - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss (latest: loss)
Newcastle: WLDLL - 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses (latest: 2 consecutive losses)
Spurs showing more stable form in recent five games
Tottenham in better position despite poor table standing
Statistics
Tottenham attack: Avg. 1.4 goals per game, Home: Avg. 1.36 goals
Newcastle attack: Avg. 1.4 goals per game, Away: Avg. 1.38 goals
Tottenham defence: Avg. 1.4 goals conceded, Home: Avg. 1.45 conceded
Newcastle defence: Avg. 1.44 goals conceded, Away: Avg. 2.0 conceded
Stadium character: 2.8 goals/game, 80% BTTS, 60% Over 2.5
Goal-friendly stadium favours offensive play
Head-to-Head
5 direct encounters with clear Newcastle dominance
Record: 4 Newcastle wins, 1 draw, 0 Tottenham wins
Goal ratio: 12:4 for Newcastle
Last meeting: 2:2 draw on December 2, 2025
Newcastle as historically dominant team in this fixture
Key Players
Dominic Solanke: 4 goals in last 5 games, Avg. 1.02 goals per 90 min
Xavi Simons: 1 assist in 5 games, rising form
Wilson Odobert: 3 assists in last 5 games
Bruno Guimarães: 9 season goals, 4 assists, central playmaker
Anthony Gordon: 2 goals in last 5 games
Joe Willock: 1 goal in last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Guglielmo Vicario: 25 season games, 7 clean sheets, Avg. 6.8 rating
Nick Pope: 19 season games, 7 clean sheets, Avg. 6.86 rating
Similar performance levels for both goalkeepers
Vicario with Avg. 6.77 rating in last 5 games
Influences
Home advantage Tottenham: 15 home goals vs 16 home conceded
Away weakness Newcastle: Avg. 2.0 goals conceded away
Stadium character: 2.8 goals per game, 80% Both Teams to Score
Grass surface: Tottenham 2-4-4 record, Newcastle 4-3-3 record
Both teams with balanced possession (49% vs 50%)