Premier League
West Ham United - Manchester United
02/10/2026, 08:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.4
1.8
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
26%
Away Win
46%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
38%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
54%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Quality gap: United maintains 80% active goal production despite absences, West Ham only moderately weakened
- Form trend collision: United on winning streak with 4 consecutive wins, West Ham inconsistent after Burnley success
- Stadium paradox: London Stadium very goal-rich (3.0 goals/game) meets West Ham's home weakness
Risk Factors
- Summerville factor: West Ham's top scorer (5 goals in 5 games) could trouble United
- Defensive instability: Both teams conceded frequently recently (United away 1.91/game)
Overview
West Ham United (18th place, 23 points) host Manchester United (4th place, 44 points) at the London Stadium
Premier League match on February 10, 2026, 8:15 PM
Clear class difference between relegation candidates and Champions League aspirants
Form
West Ham: LLWLL - 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses
Manchester United: LWWWW - 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses
United on winning streak with 4 consecutive victories
West Ham inconsistent despite good Burnley win
Statistics
West Ham: Avg. 1.24 goals scored, 1.92 goals conceded per game
At home weak: 1.23 goals per game, 2.00 goals conceded
Manchester United: Avg. 1.84 goals scored, 1.44 goals conceded per game
Away: 1.91 goals scored, 1.91 goals conceded
London Stadium: Avg. 3.0 goals per game, 80% BTTS rate
Head-to-Head
5 head-to-head matches: West Ham 3 wins, Manchester United 1 win, 1 draw
Goal statistics: 7:5 in favor of the Hammers
Last meeting: 1:1 draw at Manchester United in December 2025
West Ham historically dominant in this fixture
Key Players
Crysencio Summerville: 5 goals in last 5 games, outstanding form curve
Mateus Fernandes: 1 goal, 2 assists in 5 games, consistent performance with 7.70 rating
Bruno Fernandes: 1 goal, 5 assists in last 5 games, playmaker
Bryan Mbeumo: 3 goals in 5 games, reliable goalscorer
Goalkeepers
Mads Hermansen: 2 appearances in last 5 games, strong form with 7.66 rating
Senne Lammens: 5 appearances in last 5 games, consistent performance
Manchester United: 4 clean sheets, West Ham: only 2
Influences
London Stadium very goal-rich: 3.0 goals average, 80% BTTS rate
West Ham home weakness: only 16 goals scored vs 26 conceded in 13 home games
Manchester United away balanced: 21 goals scored but also 21 conceded
Grass surface record: West Ham 4-1-5, United stronger with 5-3-2