Premier League
Chelsea - Leeds United
02/10/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.2
1.2
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
24%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
61%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Leeds' defensive collapse away: Leeds' glaring away weakness (2.78 goals conceded per game) meets a strong Chelsea home attack
- Contrasting form: Chelsea is riding a wave of five consecutive wins, while Leeds' performances are inconsistent
- Statistical superiority: The mathematical model clearly favors Chelsea with a 54% win probability
Risk Factors
- Balanced H2H record: Despite Chelsea's favorite status, the head-to-head record is even, and Leeds won the last encounter
- Shorter recovery for Chelsea: With only three days of rest, Chelsea might show signs of fatigue
- Leeds is a goal threat: The prediction for 'Both Teams to Score' is 61%, suggesting Leeds is likely to find the net
Overview
Chelsea (4th place, 44 points) host Leeds United (15th place, 30 points) at Stamford Bridge
The Premier League match takes place on February 10, 2026, at 8:30 PM
Chelsea enters the match as clear favorites, while Leeds is fighting to avoid relegation
The mathematical prediction gives the home team a 54% probability of winning
Form
Chelsea form: WWWWW (5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses)
The Blues are in perfect form with five consecutive wins across all competitions
Leeds United form: WWDLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Leeds' form is inconsistent, despite a recent 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Chelsea scores an average of 1.8 goals per game this season and concedes 1.12
At home, Chelsea is offensively strong with 1.82 goals per game
Leeds United scores an average of 1.36 goals but concedes 1.72
Leeds' defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.78 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 4 direct encounters, the record is perfectly balanced with 2 wins each
The goal difference slightly favors Leeds United at 8:5
The last meeting in December 2025 was won 3-1 by Leeds at home
There have been no draws in their recent clashes
Key Players
João Pedro is in top form with 4 goals in his last 5 matches
Enzo Fernández has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games
Cole Palmer has been very effective recently with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 appearances
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Leeds' top scorer with 10 league goals, but has only scored once in his last 4 games
Ilia Gruev has provided 2 assists in the last 5 matches
Goalkeepers
Chelsea's Robert Sánchez has kept 9 clean sheets in 24 appearances this season
Leeds United's Karl Darlow has 4 clean sheets in 9 appearances
Statistically, Chelsea has had the more stable defense over the season
Influences
The home advantage for Chelsea is significant, especially considering Leeds' away weakness (2.78 goals conceded per game)
Stamford Bridge tends to see goals, with an average of 3.0 goals per game
Chelsea has a shorter recovery time with only 3 days compared to Leeds' 4 days
Both teams are accustomed to the grass surface and perform well on it