Premier League
Crystal Palace - Burnley
02/11/2026, 07:40 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.8
1.0
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%1:0
10%0:0
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
26%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Massive weakening of Crystal Palace: Top scorer Jean-Philippe Mateta (8 goals) is out, meaning only 50% of the usual goal threat is on the pitch
- Burnley's defensive vulnerability: With 49 goals conceded in the league, especially 2.31 per away game, Burnley's defense is their biggest weakness
- Head-to-head record: Crystal Palace is unbeaten in the last five encounters (3 wins, 2 draws) and has a clear historical advantage
Risk Factors
- Lack of offensive power for Palace: The absence of Mateta could lead to scoring difficulties, despite Burnley's weak defense
- Potential fatigue: Crystal Palace had only three days of rest since their last match, which could affect their physical condition
- Burnley's improved offense: Despite poor results, Burnley has been scoring more frequently recently than their season average
Overview
Crystal Palace (13th place, 32 points) hosts Burnley (19th place, 15 points) at Selhurst Park
Premier League match on February 11, 2026, 8:30 PM
An important duel in the relegation battle, where Palace wants to increase the gap to the relegation zone and Burnley desperately needs points to stay up
The mathematical forecast favors the home team with a 55% win probability
Form
Crystal Palace form (all competitions): LLLDW
The team achieved one win and one draw from their last 5 matches, with three losses
Their league-only form is significantly better at DDWDW, with the team unbeaten in 5 league games
Burnley form (all competitions): WDDLL
Burnley recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last 5 fixtures, losing their last two games
Their league form is LWLLD
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
The offense of both teams is comparable with 26 (Crystal Palace) and 25 (Burnley) goals this season
The crucial difference is in defense: Burnley has conceded significantly more goals (49) than Crystal Palace (29)
Burnley is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.31 goals per game and failing to keep a single clean sheet on the road
Crystal Palace has managed to keep a clean sheet 9 times this season
Head-to-Head
Crystal Palace is unbeaten in the last five head-to-head encounters
The home team won 3 of these matches, while 2 ended in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Crystal Palace at 10:4
The last meeting ended in a 1-0 victory for Palace
Key Players
Ismaïla Sarr is one of the most important offensive players for the home team with 5 goals this season
Defender Chris Richards has shown a rising form trend recently and has already contributed one goal this season
Daniel Muñoz is also a key player with 3 goals and 2 assists
For Burnley, Jaidon Anthony and Zian Flemming are the most dangerous players with 5 goals each
Goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka has recently shown a rising form trend
Goalkeepers
Dean Henderson of Crystal Palace has kept 9 clean sheets in 25 season appearances
Martin Dúbravka of Burnley has managed 3 clean sheets in 25 appearances
Influences
At Selhurst Park, an average of 2.2 goals per game have been scored in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 60% of these games
Crystal Palace has scored 11 goals and conceded 15 in 11 home games
Burnley's away weakness is glaring: they have conceded 30 goals in 13 games while scoring only 13 themselves