Premier League
Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion
02/11/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.3
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
30%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Villa's strong home record (only 0.83 goals conceded/game) is a major advantage against Brighton's vulnerable away defense (1.9 goals conceded/game)
- Goalkeeper advantage: Aston Villa's Emiliano MartĂnez is in rising form, while Brighton's Bart Verbruggen is experiencing a dip in form
- Head-to-head dominance: Aston Villa has clearly dominated recent encounters, winning the last high-scoring game 4:3, which provides a psychological edge
Risk Factors
- Aston Villa's poor league form: Despite success in other competitions, Villa is winless in their last five league games (DLLDD), which could affect their confidence
- Aston Villa's squad issues: Key players like John McGinn are missing, leaving only 67% of the usual goal-scoring potential on the field, weakening the attack
- Potential fatigue for Brighton: Brighton has had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to exhaustion and a drop in performance
Overview
Aston Villa (3rd place, 47 points) host Brighton & Hove Albion (14th place, 31 points) at Villa Park
Premier League match on February 11, 2026, 7:30 PM
Aston Villa aims to solidify its position in the top group, while Brighton looks to stabilize in the mid-table
The mathematical analysis favors the home team with a 47% probability of winning
Form
Aston Villa shows good form across all competitions with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last five games (Form: WWWLD)
However, their league form is weaker with a five-game winless streak (Form: DLLDD)
Brighton & Hove Albion have secured only one victory in their last five matches, with 2 draws and 2 losses (Form: WDLDL)
Brighton's league form is similarly inconsistent (Form: DLWLD)
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Aston Villa is very strong defensively at home, conceding an average of just 0.83 goals per game
Their offense averages 1.5 goals at home
Brighton is defensively vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.9 goals per game
The visitors' offense scores an average of 1.4 goals on the road
Both teams scored more frequently in Brighton's matches (17 times) than in Aston Villa's (13 times)
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Aston Villa has dominated with 3 wins to Brighton's one, with one match ending in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Aston Villa at 15:7
The last meeting also went to Aston Villa with a 4:3 victory
Recent history clearly favors the home team
Key Players
For Aston Villa, forwards Morgan Rogers (8 season goals, 5 assists) and Ollie Watkins (8 season goals) are the main offensive threats
Emiliano BuendĂa also contributes to the goal threat with 5 goals
For Brighton, Danny Welbeck is the top scorer with 8 season goals
In defense, Jan Paul van Hecke has also been dangerous with 3 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Aston Villa's goalkeeper Emiliano MartĂnez is in rising form
The team has kept 7 clean sheets this season
Brighton's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen is showing a declining form trend
His team has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Matches at Villa Park tend to be high-scoring, with an average of 2.8 goals in the last five games
In 60% of these matches, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals
Aston Villa has a strong home record, scoring 1.5 goals per game, while their defense is very stable, conceding only 0.83 goals
Brighton is defensively vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 1.9 goals