Premier League
Manchester City - Fulham
02/11/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.0
1.0
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
10%1:0
8%3:1
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
24%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: City's dominant home defense (0.57 goals conceded/game) meets Fulham's vulnerable away defense (2.33 goals conceded/game)
- Historical Dominance: Manchester City has won all of the last five head-to-head matches, creating a clear psychological advantage
- Clear Prediction: The mathematical model strongly favors City with a 58% win probability and expects almost twice as many goals (1.99 to 1.03)
Risk Factors
- Potential Fatigue for Man City: With only three days since their last match, the home team might show signs of tiredness
- Slight Offensive Dip for City: According to advanced stats, City's recent goal production (1.8 goals/game) is below their season average (2.04)
Overview
Manchester City (2nd place, 50 points) host Fulham (12th place, 34 points) at the Etihad Stadium
Premier League match on February 11, 2026, 7:30 PM
The hosts are looking to keep pace with the league leaders, while Fulham is positioned in the mid-table
Form
Manchester City form (all competitions): LWWDW
The team has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from the last 5 games
Fulham form (all competitions): WLWLL
Fulham comes into the match with 2 wins and 3 losses from their last 5 fixtures, including two consecutive defeats
The form guide clearly favors Manchester City
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Manchester City is stronger with an average of 2.04 goals per game compared to Fulham's 1.4 goals
Defensively, City is significantly more stable with only 0.96 goals conceded per game, compared to Fulham's 1.48
The difference is particularly stark in home and away performances
City concedes just 0.57 goals per game on average at home, while Fulham concedes 2.33 goals on the road
Head-to-Head
Manchester City has won all of the last 5 direct encounters against Fulham
The goal difference from these matches is 19:7 in favor of City
The last meeting ended with a 5:4 victory for Manchester City
The historical record shows clear dominance by the home team
Key Players
For Manchester City, Erling Haaland is the standout player with 21 goals this season
He is supported by Phil Foden (7 goals) and Bernardo Silva, who has been in rising form with 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 4 games
Fulham's attack is led by Harry Wilson (8 goals, 4 assists) and RaĂșl JimĂ©nez (6 goals, 3 assists)
Goalkeepers
Manchester City's goalkeeper is Gianluigi Donnarumma, who has kept 10 clean sheets in 25 league matches this season
Fulham's goalkeeper is Bernd Leno, who has managed 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Manchester City enjoys a massive home advantage, especially defensively, with only 0.57 goals conceded per game at the Etihad Stadium
The grass pitch at the stadium is familiar to both teams
Fulham's extreme defensive weakness away from home (2.33 goals conceded per game) is a crucial factor