Premier League
Chelsea - Burnley
02/21/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.7
3.6
1.0
2:1
9%3:0
8%3:1
8%4:0
6%4:1
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
72%
Draw
17%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
49%
Under 3.5
51%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
28%
No Draw
83%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Clear offensive advantage: Chelsea's strong attack (1.81 goals/game) meets Burnley's vulnerable defense (1.96 goals conceded/game)
- Form curve: Chelsea is unbeaten in 5 games (4W, 1D), while Burnley has lost 3 of their last 5
- Head-to-head: Chelsea has dominated recent encounters and is unbeaten in 5 games against Burnley
Risk Factors
- Burnley is competing with only 64% of their seasonal goal-scoring threat available
- Despite being favorites, Chelsea concedes an average of 1.25 goals at home, and models predict a 58% chance that both teams will score
- Chelsea has a significant list of unavailable players, which could affect defensive stability
Overview
Chelsea (5th place, 44 points) host Burnley (19th place, 18 points) at Stamford Bridge
Premier League match on February 21, 2026, 4:00 PM
The home team are clear favorites against the relegation-threatened visitors
Form
Home team form: WWWDW (W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss)
Chelsea are in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches
Away team form: DLLWL
Burnley have lost 3 of their last 5 games and are in a form crisis
Statistics
Chelsea score an average of 1.83 goals per game at home
Burnley concede an average of 2.13 goals away
Chelsea's attack (47 season goals) meets one of the weakest defenses in the league (51 goals conceded)
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 of Chelsea's 26 matches
Head-to-Head
Chelsea are unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head encounters
The record: 3 wins for Chelsea, 2 draws, 0 wins for Burnley
The goal difference is 13:4 in favor of Chelsea
The last meeting was won by Chelsea 2:0
Key Players
João Pedro: 10 season goals and 4 assists, 5 goals in the last 5 games
Cole Palmer: 8 goals and 1 assist this season, with a recent strong upward trend in form
Enzo Fernández: Important midfielder with 8 season goals
Jaidon Anthony: Burnley's top scorer with 6 goals
Zian Flemming: Has scored 5 goals this season
Lesley Ugochukwu: 3 goals and 1 assist from midfield
Goalkeepers
Chelsea's Robert Sánchez has kept 9 clean sheets this season
Burnley's Martin Dúbravka has 3 clean sheets
Sánchez concedes an average of 1.15 goals per game, Dúbravka 1.96
Influences
Chelsea are very strong at home, scoring an average of 1.83 goals per game
At Stamford Bridge, games have recently averaged 3.2 goals
Both teams scored in 3 of Chelsea's last 5 home matches