Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur - Arsenal
02/22/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
3.0
2.1
1:1
11%0:2
10%1:2
10%0:3
7%1:3
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
16%
Draw
23%
Away Win
61%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
39%
Away or Draw
84%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- League table disparity: League leaders Arsenal face relegation-threatened 16th place, clearly reflecting the balance of power
- Defensive stability vs. vulnerability: Arsenal concedes the fewest goals in the league at 0.74 per game, while Tottenham is defensively vulnerable with 1.42 goals conceded
- Historical dominance: Arsenal has dominated the last five head-to-head encounters (4 wins, 1 draw), giving them a psychological advantage
Risk Factors
- Significant personnel issues for Tottenham: The absence of key players like C. Romero and reduced attacking power (only 67% of goal threat in the squad) is a major handicap
- Short recovery time for Arsenal: With only four days of rest since their last match, player freshness could be a factor
- Home stadium trend: Despite Tottenham's poor form, their last five home games have averaged 3.0 goals, which could make for an unpredictable match
Overview
In the North London Derby, Tottenham Hotspur (16th place, 29 points) host league leaders Arsenal (1st place, 58 points) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
The Premier League match takes place on February 22, 2026, at 5:30 PM
Arsenal aims to defend their top spot, while Spurs urgently need points to fight relegation
Form
Tottenham Hotspur Form: D-W-D-L-L
Spurs have won only one of their last five matches (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses) and have lost their last two games
Arsenal Form: W-W-D-W-D
The Gunners are unbeaten in their last five games (3 wins, 2 draws), showing consistently strong form
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Arsenal has a significantly better attack, averaging 1.93 goals per game compared to Tottenham's 1.38 goals
Defense is Arsenal's strong suit, conceding only 0.74 goals per game compared to 1.42 for Spurs
Arsenal has kept almost twice as many clean sheets (13) as Tottenham (7)
In home games, Tottenham concedes an average of 1.5 goals, while Arsenal allows only 1.09 goals away
Head-to-Head
Arsenal has clearly dominated the last five head-to-head encounters
The Gunners won four matches, with one draw
Tottenham failed to win any of these games
The goal difference of 12:6 also speaks clearly in favor of Arsenal
The last meeting ended in a 4-1 victory for Arsenal
Key Players
Micky van de Ven has proven to be a goal-scoring defender with 4 goals this season
Xavi Simons is a key creative force in midfield with 4 assists
João Palhinha has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists so far
Viktor Gyökeres is a central player in Arsenal's attack with 8 goals this season
Leandro Trossard shows his versatility with 5 goals and 5 assists
Declan Rice is a key figure in midfield with 4 goals and 4 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Tottenham Hotspur's Guglielmo Vicario has kept 7 clean sheets this season
Arsenal's David Raya has already kept his goal clean in 13 league games
Statistically, Arsenal has the significantly more stable defense and the more successful goalkeeper in terms of clean sheets
Influences
The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has recently been a venue for high-scoring games
In the last five matches, there has been an average of 3.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in four of these five games (BTTS rate of 80%)
Tottenham has conceded 18 goals in their 12 home games, highlighting their defensive vulnerability at home