Ligue 1
Le Mans - Brest
08/22/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
3.0
4.1
1.1
2:1
8%3:1
8%3:0
8%4:1
6%4:0
6%The Lab
- 1Brest: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Brest with Daouda Guindo: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Brest: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4Brest: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
75%
Draw
15%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Under 1.5
8%
Over 2.5
77%
Under 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
58%
Under 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
25%
No Draw
85%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Model prediction: High home win probability of 75% and 3.00 expected goals for Le Mans
- Away weakness of Brest with an average of 2.67 goals conceded per away game
- Personnel impact for Brest: Four players missing from the lineup including Junior Dina Ebimbe and Brendan Chardonnet
Risk Factors
- Brest goalscorer Ludovic Ajorque is in strong form with 4 goals in his last 5 games
- Limited data availability: No seasonal statistics or form curve available for the home team Le Mans
- Brest recently played counter-oriented with an average of only 2.0 shots on target per game
Overview
Le Mans host Brest at the Stade de La Pincenardière
Ligue 1 match on August 22, 2026, 8:45 PM
The home team starts in 16th place while the guests are in 3rd place in the standings
The mathematical analysis favors the hosts with a 75% win probability
Form
Brest shows a form of WWLLL in recent matches with 2 wins and 3 losses
The away team suffered three consecutive defeats recently
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Due to missing data the form of Le Mans cannot be evaluated
Statistics
Brest scored an average of 1.26 goals per game while conceding 1.62 goals this season
In away matches the guests concede an average of 2.67 goals
Le Mans does not have season stats in the current dataset
Head-to-Head
There are no historical head-to-head matches for these teams in the provided dataset
Key Players
Ludovic Ajorque scored 4 goals in the last 5 matches for Brest showing a rising trend
Romain Del Castillo has 9 goals this season for Brest with a declining form trend
Kamory Doumbia contributed 5 goals and 4 assists for the guests this season
Goalkeepers
Nicolas Kocik starts in goal for Le Mans
Egil Selvik is in goal for Brest
Brest kept 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match is played on artificial turf at Stade de La Pincenardière
Brest has not won on this surface with a record of 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss scoring 3 and conceding 7 goals
No weather data available for this match