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Ligue 1

Rennes - Paris Saint Germain

08/23/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Rennes
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Paris Saint Germain
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RENPSG

Rennes

Rising form (2.5 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.06
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.04
Ludovic Blas on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Quentin Merlin on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Mahdi Camara not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Arnaud Nordin on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

Paris Saint Germain

Attack strength (1.52x league average)
+0.58
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.05
Nuno Mendes not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Rennes: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Rennes: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Paris Saint Germain: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

28%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Restricted squad: Rennes has to cope without the unlisted Ludovic Blas, Quentin Merlin, Mahdi Camara, and Arnaud Nordin
  • Offensive strength: Both teams averaged a strong 5.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Tight matchup: The mathematical model predicts a close match with 1.36 expected goals for Rennes against 1.56 for the visitors
Risk Factors
  • Rennes has to compensate for the absence of 4 key players, reducing their starting XI strength to 80%
  • Paris Saint Germain's goal production recently dropped to an average of 2.2 compared to their season average of 2.5
  • Historical disadvantage for Rennes with 3 losses in their last 4 head-to-head matches against Paris
Overview

Rennes faces Paris Saint Germain at Roazhon Park

Both teams start this Ligue 1 match with zero points

Match on August 23, 2026, 8:45 PM

Paris Saint Germain is favored with a calculated 41% win probability

Form

Rennes holds a form of WWLDW with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

The home team scores more frequently now with 2.5 goals compared to their 1.8 season average

Paris Saint Germain shows a form of WWWDD

The visitors' goal scoring has slowed down recently with 2.2 goals compared to a season average of 2.5

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Rennes scores an average of 1.74 goals and concedes 1.47 goals per game this season

At home, their defense is more stable, conceding an average of 1.00 goals

Paris Saint Germain scores an average of 2.18 goals and concedes only 0.85 goals per match

The visitors maintain a strong away scoring average of 2.20 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the teams

Paris Saint Germain leads the history with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Rennes

The goal ratio is 5:13 from Rennes' perspective

The last match on February 13, 2026 ended in a 3-1 home win for Rennes

Key Players

Estéban Lepaul leads Rennes' attack with 20 season goals and 5 assists

Valentin Rongier shows rising form with an average rating of 7.77 in recent matches

Ousmane Dembélé is highly dangerous for Paris Saint Germain with 10 goals and 7 assists

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia contributed 8 goals and shows a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

Brice Samba kept goal 32 times for Rennes this season with an average rating of 6.84

Rennes recorded a total of 10 clean sheets, with 4 of them coming at home

Matvey Safonov played 15 matches in goal for Paris Saint Germain with a season average of 7.01

The visitors achieved 18 clean sheets this season, including 7 in away games

Influences

Rennes relies on a solid home record, scoring an average of 1.76 goals at Roazhon Park

The historical venue statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game at this stadium

The match will be played on a classic grass surface

Paris Saint Germain shows high efficiency away from home with an average of 2.20 goals per away match

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