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Ligue 1

Toulouse - Olympique Lyonnais

08/22/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Toulouse
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Olympique Lyonnais
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
TOUOL

Toulouse

Attack weakness (0.34x league average)
-4.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap)
-0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Aron Dønnum not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Djibril Sidibé not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Pape Demba Diop not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Dayann Methalie not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Warren Kamanzi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Olympique Lyonnais

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.17
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Corentin Tolisso on the bench (11 goals, 4 assists)
Abner not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Ainsley Maitland-Niles not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Tyler Morton on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Ruben Kluivert not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Moussa Niakhaté not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
88% of goal output missing (only 6% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (5.5 goals/match)
+3.00
+3.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Olympique Lyonnais with Roman Yaremchuk: 0 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

  • 2
    Toulouse with Dayann Methalie: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad loss for Lyon: Without Corentin Tolisso, Abner, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Tyler Morton, Ruben Kluivert, and Moussa Niakhaté, only 6% of seasonal goal threat is active
  • Weakened Toulouse attack: Without Aron Dønnum, Djibril Sidibé, Pape Demba Diop, Dayann Methalie, and Warren Kamanzi, only 64% of goal threat is available
  • Tactical styles: Lyon averaged 55% possession and 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, while Toulouse was counter-focused with 41% possession and 3.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue disadvantage for Lyon with only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Both attacks have shown weak form recently and performed below their season averages
Overview

Toulouse hosts Olympique Lyonnais

Ligue 1 fixture on August 22, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams start the season with zero points

Mathematical models predict a 40% chance for a home win

Form

Toulouse holds a form of LLWWL

Olympique Lyonnais enters with a form of LDLWD

Both teams show a negative recent trend

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Toulouse scored 1.42 goals and conceded 1.39 on average this season

Lyon scored 1.56 goals and conceded 1.18 on average

The match venue averages 2.6 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Out of 4 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2 and Lyon won 1 with 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 2:1 victory for Toulouse

Goal difference stands at 5:4 in favor of Toulouse

Key Players

Yann Gboho scored 8 goals and provided 5 assists with a 7.04 rating

Santiago Hidalgo contributed 4 goals and 6 assists

Cristian Cásseres Jr. holds a season rating of 7.09 in midfield

Goalkeepers

Guillaume Restes made 33 appearances with a rating of 6.77

Rémy Descamps played 5 matches with a rating of 7.01

Influences

Toulouse recorded 25 goals scored and 24 conceded at home this season

Stadium de Toulouse has an over 2.5 goals rate of 60%

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