Premier League
Aston Villa - Leeds United
02/21/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.0
1.2
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
26%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Defensive mismatch: Aston Villa's strong home defense (0.77 goals conceded/game) faces Leeds' extremely weak away defense (2.7 goals conceded/game)
- Historical dominance: Aston Villa is unbeaten in the last five encounters against Leeds, winning three of them
- Clear starting position: As third in the table with a strong home record, Aston Villa are the clear favorites, supported by a 50% win probability in the model
Risk Factors
- Villa's inconsistent form: Despite their high league position, Villa's current form is mixed with only two wins in five games
- Midfield injury concerns: The absence of regular starters J. McGinn, Y. Tielemans, and B. Kamara could weaken Villa's midfield control
- Leeds' resilience: Leeds have lost only one of their last five games and are difficult to beat
Overview
Aston Villa, in 3rd place in the table with 50 points, hosts Leeds United, who are in 15th place with 30 points
The Premier League match will take place on February 21, 2026, at 3:00 PM at Villa Park
Aston Villa aims to solidify its position among the top teams, while Leeds needs crucial points in the relegation battle
Form
Aston Villa's form over the last five games has been inconsistent: WLDWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Leeds United has been harder to beat with a form of DLWDD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss) in their last five matches
Leeds is unbeaten in their last two games, but both ended in a draw
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Aston Villa is very strong defensively at home, conceding an average of just 0.77 goals per game
In contrast, Leeds United's defense is extremely vulnerable away from home, with an average of 2.7 goals conceded per match
Offensively, both teams are comparable with around 1.4 goals per game
Leeds' matches have seen more goals (16 of 26 games with over 2.5 goals) compared to Aston Villa's (13 of 26)
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Aston Villa has had the clear upper hand
The record stands at 3 wins for Aston Villa, 2 draws, and no wins for Leeds United
The goal difference is 10:5 in favor of Aston Villa
The last meeting was a 2:1 victory for Aston Villa
Key Players
For Aston Villa, Morgan Rogers (8 goals, 5 assists) and Ollie Watkins (8 goals, 1 assist) are the main goal scorers
Emiliano BuendĂa is also a key offensive player with 5 goals and 2 assists
For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the decisive attacker with 10 goals this season
In midfield, Brenden Aaronson (4 goals, 3 assists) and Anton Stach (3 goals, 3 assists) are important players
Goalkeepers
Aston Villa's goalkeeper Emiliano MartĂnez has kept a clean sheet in 8 of 22 matches this season
Karl Darlow, the Leeds goalkeeper, has played in 10 matches, with the team keeping a total of 4 clean sheets
Aston Villa's record is particularly strong at home, with 5 clean sheets at Villa Park
Influences
The home advantage for Aston Villa is statistically significant
They score an average of 1.46 goals at home and concede only 0.77
The last five matches at Villa Park have been slightly lower scoring, with an average of 2.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in only 2 of the last 5 home games