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Ligue 1

Nice - Lorient

08/22/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Nice
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Lorient
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NICLOR

Nice

Attack weakness (0.27x league average)
-4.06
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 4.5 league avg)
-2.50
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap)
-0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.14
Tom Louchet not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Hicham Boudaoui not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Morgan Sanson not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Charles Vanhoutte not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

Lorient

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.56
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Bamba Dieng not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists)
Bamo Meïté not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Karim Dermane not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (5.5 goals/match)
+3.00
+3.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nice with Hicham Boudaoui: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Lorient: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Lorient: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

27%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Nice's goal production has recently stalled at 0.6 compared to their season average of 1.1
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 42% away win probability compared to 31% for a home win
  • Lorient averaged 3.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to 3.4 for Nice
Risk Factors
  • Tom Louchet, Hicham Boudaoui, Morgan Sanson, and Charles Vanhoutte are missing, leaving only 64% of goal-scoring threat available
  • Bamba Dieng, Bamo Meïté, and Karim Dermane are missing, leaving only 59% of goal-scoring threat available
  • Lorient concedes an average of 2.17 goals per away match
Overview

Nice host Lorient at the Allianz Riviera

Ligue 1 match on August 22, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams start this phase of the season with zero points

Form

Nice in weak form with LLWLL

Recently 1 win and 4 losses for the home team

Lorient with a more stable trend of DDWLD

The visitors recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nice averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.59 goals conceded per home game

Lorient averages 1.42 goals scored and 2.17 goals conceded in away games

Both teams scored in 20 of Nice's and 18 of Lorient's season matches

Lorient scores 1.41 goals on average compared to Nice's 1.09

Head-to-Head

2 head-to-head matches in the database

No wins for Nice, 1 win for Lorient, and 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 3-3 draw on February 22, 2026

Lorient is historically the dominant side according to the record

Key Players

Sofiane Diop leads Nice's attack with 8 goals and 3 assists

Jonathan Clauss supports the defense with 6 assists and a 7.12 rating

Melvin Bard scored 2 goals with a rating of 6.77 so far

Arsène Kouassi provides playmaker qualities for Lorient with 7 assists and 2 goals

Jean-Victor Makengo stabilizes the midfield with 4 goals and a 6.94 rating

Noah Doriann Cadiou scored 3 goals this season with an average rating of 6.81

Goalkeepers

Yehvann Diouf is in goal for Nice and kept 6 clean sheets this season

Yvon Mvogo guards the net for Lorient and recorded 7 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers aim to stabilize their defensive performance in this match

Influences

Allianz Riviera averages 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the last 5 home games at this venue

The match will be played on natural grass

Nice's home advantage is supported by an average of 1.12 goals scored per home match

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