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Ligue 1

Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg

08/21/2026, 06:45 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Olympique Marseille
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Strasbourg
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
OMSTR

Olympique Marseille

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.13
Mason Greenwood not in squad (16 goals, 7 assists)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang not in squad (10 goals, 5 assists)
Benjamin Pavard not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Strasbourg

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.11
Diego Moreira not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists)
Martial Godo on the bench (10 goals, 1 assists)
Julio Enciso not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)
Valentín Barco not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Ben Chilwell not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Ismaël Doukouré not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Abdoul Ouattara not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 52% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Strasbourg with Maxi Oyedele: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Olympique Marseille: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Olympique Marseille: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Olympique Marseille: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

30%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad depletion for the visitors: Strasbourg has only 52% of their usual starting strength available with key players like Diego Moreira and Martial Godo missing
  • Marseille's home advantage: The hosts average 1.86 goals scored and only 0.91 conceded at the Stade Vélodrome
  • Offensive metrics: Marseille averaged 5.0 shots on target in their recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Weakened home squad: Marseille has only 65% of their usual starting strength available with key scorers Mason Greenwood (16 goals) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (10 goals) missing
  • Away defensive struggles: Strasbourg concedes 1.75 goals per away game on average
  • Limited data on weather conditions
Overview

Olympique Marseille hosts Strasbourg at the Stade Vélodrome

Ligue 1 match on August 21, 2026, 8:45 PM

Season opener with both teams currently positioned at the top of the standings

Form

Marseille enters the match with form WWWLL

The home side suffered two consecutive defeats recently

Strasbourg travels with form WLWLL

The visitors also lost their last two matches

Statistics

Marseille scores an average of 1.86 goals at home and concedes 0.91

Strasbourg concedes 1.75 goals on average away while scoring 1.75

The home team kept a total of 9 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

Balanced head-to-head record with one win each and two draws

The goal difference is exactly even at 5:5

The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

Igor Paixão has 6 goals and 5 assists this season

Amine Gouiri recorded 8 goals and 3 assists so far

For Strasbourg, Sebastian Nanasi shines with 7 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Jeffrey de Lange starts in goal for Marseille

Filip Jørgensen starts in goal for Strasbourg

Both teams have achieved 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Stade Vélodrome features a grass surface

Matches at this stadium average 2.8 total goals

The both teams to score rate stands at 80% at this venue

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