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Ligue 1

Le Havre - Monaco

08/23/2026, 03:15 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Le Havre
1.0
Total xG
2.8
Monaco
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

0:3

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
LHMON

Le Havre

Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-0.96
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average)
-0.07
Issa Soumaré not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists)
Sofiane Boufal not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Gautier Lloris not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Arouna Sangante not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match)

Monaco

Attack strength (1.51x league average)
+1.12
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.17
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Folarin Balogun not in squad (13 goals, 4 assists)
Maghnes Akliouche not in squad (6 goals, 6 assists)
J. Teze not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Aladji Bamba not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
44% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Monaco: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Le Havre with Timothée Pembélé: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Monaco: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 4
    Monaco: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Monaco: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

19%

Draw

26%

Away Win

55%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

45%

Away or Draw

81%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Monaco's form boost: The visitors score more frequently recently (2.4 goals) compared to their season average (1.8)
  • Tactical dominance: Monaco averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches, indicating strong offensive power
  • Weakened hosts: Le Havre is playing with only 57% of their usual starting lineup strength as key players like Issa Soumaré are missing
Risk Factors
  • Folarin Balogun and Maghnes Akliouche are missing, leaving Monaco with only 63% of their active goal share available
  • Monaco has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Monaco concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
Overview

Le Havre (12th place, 0 points) host Monaco (14th place, 0 points) at Stade Océane

Ligue 1 match on August 23, 2026, 5:15 PM

Monaco is the favorite with a calculated win probability of 55%

Both teams look to start the new season

Form

Le Havre shows poor form with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in recent games

Monaco travels with a perfect streak of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

Form codes: LLDLD for Le Havre and WWWWW for Monaco

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Le Havre scored an average of 0.94 goals per game and conceded 1.29 in the season

Monaco averaged 1.76 goals scored and 1.59 goals conceded

In Monaco's away matches, they conceded an average of 2.07 goals while scoring 1.8

The model calculates 0.98 expected home goals and 1.81 expected away goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Le Havre had 0 wins, Monaco had 2 wins, with 2 draws

The goal difference is 3:7 in favor of Monaco

The last encounter on January 24, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Rassoul Ndiaye has 4 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 6.97

Fodé Doucouré recorded 3 seasonal goals and 2 assists from defense

Yanis Zouaoui contributes solid defensive play with a rating of 6.81

Aleksandr Golovin shines in midfield with 5 goals, 5 assists, and a rating of 6.99

Lamine Camara impresses with 3 goals, 4 assists, and a strong rating of 7.24

Mamadou Coulibaly has contributed 3 goals and 3 assists so far

Goalkeepers

Lionel Mpasi-Nzau guards the goal for Le Havre with a strong rating of 7.33

Lukas Hradecky is in goal for Monaco with a rating of 6.68

Influences

Played on natural grass at the Stade Océane

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per match

Le Havre's home advantage is backed by 0.95 goals scored per home game

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