Match report →
Monaco – Olympique Marseille2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Monaco
1.40
Total xG
2.90
Olympique Marseille
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monaco | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| 28% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Mason Greenwood not in squad (16 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang not in squad (10 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Igor Paixão not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Benjamin Pavard not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 52% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Only 52% of goals share available for Olympique Marseille without Mason Greenwood, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Igor Paixão, Benjamin Pavard
- Form advantage: Monaco enters the match with an active streak of 5 consecutive wins
- Offensive trend: Monaco scores more frequently recently (2.4 goals on average) compared to their season average (1.9 goals)
Risks
- Fatigue: Monaco enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Away weakness: Olympique Marseille concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
- Offensive slump: Olympique Marseille's goal production is stalling recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.9
All probabilities
Result
Monaco34%
Draw28%
Olympique Marseille38%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Monaco or draw62%
Olympique Marseille or draw66%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monaco: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Monaco: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)
- Olympique Marseille: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Monaco: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Amine Gouiri: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Olympique Marseille: 7 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Monaco 4-2-3-1 · Olympique Marseille 4-2-3-1
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 15 E. Dier
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 8 L. Camara
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 28 M. Coulibaly
- 10 A. Golovin
- 17 S. Idumbo Muzambo
- 29 P. Brunner
Olympique Marseille
- 12 J. de Lange
- 22 T. Weah
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 77 A. Harit
- 7 A. Gomes
- 27 Q. Timber
- 9 A. Gouiri
Substitutes
- 11 M. Abline
- 14 M. Bieveth
- 16 P. Köhn
- 5 T. Kehrer
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 4 J. Teze
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 46 A. Soubeir
- 47 S. Benzahra
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 11 N. Maupay
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 29 F. Pemi Moumbagna
- 6 T. Nadi
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