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Ligue 1

Monaco - Olympique Marseille

08/30/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Monaco
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Olympique Marseille
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MONOM

Monaco

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.16
28% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Olympique Marseille

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.03
Mason Greenwood not in squad (16 goals, 7 assists)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang not in squad (10 goals, 5 assists)
Igor Paixão not in squad (6 goals, 5 assists)
Benjamin Pavard not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 52% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.56
+0.56
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Monaco: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Monaco: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)

  • 3
    Olympique Marseille: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Monaco: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Amine Gouiri: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Olympique Marseille: 7 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Only 52% of goals share available for Olympique Marseille without Mason Greenwood, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Igor Paixão, Benjamin Pavard
  • Form advantage: Monaco enters the match with an active streak of 5 consecutive wins
  • Offensive trend: Monaco scores more frequently recently (2.4 goals on average) compared to their season average (1.9 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: Monaco enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Away weakness: Olympique Marseille concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
  • Offensive slump: Olympique Marseille's goal production is stalling recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.9
Overview

Monaco (7th place, 3 points) host Olympique Marseille (5th place, 3 points) at Stade Louis II

Ligue 1 match on August 30, 2026, 8:45 PM

A clash between two teams level on points early in the campaign

Form

Monaco enters in outstanding shape with a perfect record of 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW, W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Olympique Marseille recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches (WWLLW)

The hosts carry significantly more momentum into this encounter

Statistics

Monaco scores an average of 1.76 goals and concedes 1.59 goals per game this season

At Stade Louis II, Monaco concedes just 1.21 goals on average while scoring 1.74 times

Olympique Marseille averages 1.85 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded

The visitors show high defensive vulnerability on the road with an average of 2.08 goals conceded per away match

Head-to-Head

Even historical record in the last 4 head-to-head encounters with 2 wins for each side

The last direct meeting on April 5, 2026 ended in a 2-1 home victory for Monaco

A total of 6-4 goals were scored in these matches in favor of Monaco

Key Players

Aleksandr Golovin shines in midfield with 5 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 6.99

Lamine Camara impresses in midfield with a season rating average of 7.24

Mamadou Coulibaly contributed 3 goals and 3 assists in this campaign

Amine Gouiri leads the visitors' attack with 8 goals and 3 assists

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg orchestrates the opposition midfield with 4 goals and 5 assists with a 7.23 rating

Angel Gomes has recorded 3 goals in midfield this season

Goalkeepers

Lukas Hradecky is in goal for Monaco with an average rating of 6.68

In the current campaign he has already recorded 7 clean sheets

On the other side, Jeffrey de Lange starts with an average rating of 6.51

Influences

Matches at Stade Louis II averaged 3.0 goals per game recently

The rate for both teams to score stands at 60% at this venue

The match will be played on natural grass surface

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