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Ligue 108/29/2026, 06:45 PM

Olympique Lyonnais – Le Havre1 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Olympique Lyonnais
1.52
Total xG
2.52
Le Havre
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorOlympique LyonnaisLe Havre
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.32+0.32
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)−0.25
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)−0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)−0.11
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)+0.07
Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average)−0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)−0.04
Abner on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Ainsley Maitland-Niles on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Malick Fofana on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ruben Kluivert not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Issa Soumaré not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists)
Sofiane Boufal not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Yanis Zouaoui not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Arouna Sangante not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 39% available)

Key factors

  • Critical squad impact for Le Havre: Only 39% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with key contributors like Issa SoumarĂ© (8 goals, 5 assists) missing
  • Tactical offensive strength: Olympique Lyonnais averaged a strong 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Historical dominance: Olympique Lyonnais won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Le Havre with a 9:2 goal difference

Risks

  • Fatigue factor: Olympique Lyonnais enter the match with a short rest of only 3 days since their last game
  • Away defensive weakness: Le Havre concede a high average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Visitor's offensive limitations: Le Havre averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game in recent matches

All probabilities

Result
Olympique Lyonnais48%
Draw29%
Le Havre23%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Olympique Lyonnais or draw77%
Le Havre or draw52%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Le Havre: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
  2. Olympique Lyonnais: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

Lineups

Olympique Lyonnais 4-2-3-1 · Le Havre 3-4-2-1

Olympique Lyonnais
  • 1 D. Greif
  • 13 Z. Athekame
  • 20 F. Bacher
  • 19 M. NiakhatĂ©
  • 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
  • 2 M. Bidstrup
  • 23 T. Morton
  • 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
  • 8 C. Tolisso
  • 26 K. Boudache
  • 17 L. Openda
Le Havre
  • 77 L. Mpasi-Nzau
  • 15 A. Seko
  • 6 J. Mwanga
  • 5 A. Touba
  • 33 D. Ouziad
  • 26 S. Ebonog
  • 7 A. Richardson
  • 32 T. Pembele
  • 14 R. N'Diaye
  • 17 K. Mizuta
  • 25 M. Samatta
Substitutes
  • 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
  • 18 K. Merah
  • 40 R. Descamps
  • 10 P. Ć ulc
  • 11 M. Fofana
  • 6 T. Tessmann
  • 98 A. Maitland-Niles
  • 16 A. Da Silva Santos
  • 99 N. Teye Nartey
  • 93 G. Gallon
  • 13 F. DoucourĂ©
  • 78 D. Mosengo
  • 9 J. Maja
  • 12 E. Jelert Kristensen
  • 44 I. Bouneb
  • 27 E. Koffi Vinette
  • 30 S. Nakamura
  • 23 V. Sasso

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