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Ligue 1

Olympique Lyonnais - Le Havre

08/29/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Olympique Lyonnais
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Le Havre
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
OLLH

Olympique Lyonnais

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Abner on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Ainsley Maitland-Niles on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Malick Fofana on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ruben Kluivert not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Le Havre

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)
-0.25
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average)
-0.06
Issa Soumaré not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists)
Sofiane Boufal not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Yanis Zouaoui not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Arouna Sangante not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 39% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Le Havre: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

  • 2
    Olympique Lyonnais: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Le Havre: Only 39% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with key contributors like Issa Soumaré (8 goals, 5 assists) missing
  • Tactical offensive strength: Olympique Lyonnais averaged a strong 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Historical dominance: Olympique Lyonnais won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Le Havre with a 9:2 goal difference
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Olympique Lyonnais enter the match with a short rest of only 3 days since their last game
  • Away defensive weakness: Le Havre concede a high average of 2.0 goals per away match
  • Visitor's offensive limitations: Le Havre averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
Overview

Olympique Lyonnais (4th place, 3 points) host Le Havre (14th place, 0 points) at the Groupama Stadium

Ligue 1 fixture on August 29, 2026, 8:45 PM

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 48%

The hosts aim to build on their positive start with a home victory

Form

Olympique Lyonnais hold a form of LWDWL with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Le Havre show a form of LDLDL with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Both sides suffered a defeat in their most recent fixture

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Olympique Lyonnais averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1.18 conceded last season

Le Havre struggle with 0.94 goals scored per game and concede 2.0 on average away

The model calculates 1.52 expected goals for the home side and 0.99 for the visitors

Recent games at this venue featured a high average of 4.2 goals per match

Head-to-Head

The hosts dominate the history with 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 encounters

The overall goal difference is 9:2 in favor of Olympique Lyonnais

The last meeting on March 15, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Corentin Tolisso stands out this season with 11 goals and 4 assists

Moussa Niakhaté stabilizes the defense and registered 2 assists

Ernest Nuamah scored 1 goal in just 76 minutes of play recently

Goalkeepers

Dominik Greif kept 15 clean sheets this season with a 6.96 average rating

Lionel Mpasi-Nzau impresses with a strong 7.33 rating for the away team

Le Havre secured 8 clean sheets throughout the campaign

Influences

Olympique Lyonnais show solid home strength with 1.58 goals scored per home match

The game will be played on a grass surface

The venue history signals a clear trend with a 100% over 2.5 rate in recent games

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