Match report →
Rennes – Le Mans3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Rennes
1.51
Total xG
2.98
Le Mans
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rennes | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| Ludovic Blas on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Mahdi Camara on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Arnaud Nordin on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: Rennes currently score more frequently (averaging 2.8 goals per match) than their season average of 1.8
- Tactical dominance: Rennes recently averaged 56% possession and 5.8 shots on target per match
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis projects a highly balanced match with a 37% home win probability and a 36% away win probability
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Le Mans already conceded 2.0 goals on average in their first match of the season
- Goalkeeper absence: The injury of starting keeper B. Samba weakens the defensive stability of the hosts
- Limited data availability regarding head-to-head records and away squad player form
All probabilities
Result
Rennes37%
Draw27%
Le Mans36%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
Rennes or draw64%
Le Mans or draw63%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
Lineups
Rennes 4-3-3 · Le Mans 3-1-4-2
Rennes
- 16 N. Lemaître
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 17 S. Szymański
- 21 V. Rongier
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 11 M. Al Tamari
- 9 E. Lepaul
- 90 I. Soumaré
Le Mans
- 98 N. Kocik
- 15 N. Boissé
- 21 T. Eyoum
- 5 H. Voyer
- 8 A. Lauray
- 18 L. Buadés
- 29 L. Bretelle
- 11 A. Bourabaa
- 22 L. Calodat
- 25 D. Guèye
- 14 L. Mafouta
Substitutes
- 70 A. Nordin
- 24 A. Rouault
- 10 L. Blas
- 45 M. Camara
- 18 M. Nagida
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 65 H. Do Marcolino
- 60 K. Belazzoug
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 19 D. Sidibé
- 16 R. Torrente Navarro
- 7 B. Brahimi
- 23 D. Traoré
- 24 M. Robin
- 9 A. Rabillard
- 1 E. Hatfout
- 20 W. Harhouz
- 10 J. Vercruysse
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