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Ligue 1

Rennes - Le Mans

08/30/2026, 03:15 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Rennes
1.5
Total xG
3.0
Le Mans
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
RENLM

Rennes

Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.12
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.09
Ludovic Blas on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Mahdi Camara on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Arnaud Nordin on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Le Mans

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.44
+0.44
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

27%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Rennes currently score more frequently (averaging 2.8 goals per match) than their season average of 1.8
  • Tactical dominance: Rennes recently averaged 56% possession and 5.8 shots on target per match
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis projects a highly balanced match with a 37% home win probability and a 36% away win probability
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive weakness: Le Mans already conceded 2.0 goals on average in their first match of the season
  • Goalkeeper absence: The injury of starting keeper B. Samba weakens the defensive stability of the hosts
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head records and away squad player form
Overview

Rennes host Le Mans at the Roazhon Park

Ligue 1 match on August 30, 2026, 5:15 PM

Both teams started the new campaign with a draw

Rennes sit in 11th place and Le Mans in 12th place, both with one point

Form

Rennes show the form WLDWD

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Paris Saint Germain

Le Mans started the season with the form D

Their previous fixture was a 2-2 draw against Brest

Statistics

Rennes scored an average of 1.74 goals and conceded 1.47 goals per match last season

At home, Rennes conceded only 1.00 goal per game on average last term

Le Mans started this season with a goal difference of 2-2

Rennes averaged 1.76 goals scored per home match

Key Players

Estéban Lepaul scored 20 goals and provided 5 assists in 32 appearances

Mousa Tamari contributed 6 goals and 6 assists this season

Valentin Rongier impresses in midfield with an average rating of 7.20

Not nominated for this match: Ludovic Blas, Mahdi Camara, Arnaud Nordin

Goalkeepers

Nicolas Lemaître is in goal for Rennes as starting keeper B. Samba is injured

Nicolas Kocik guards the net for Le Mans and conceded 2 goals in the last match

Rennes kept 10 clean sheets overall during the previous season

Influences

Roazhon Park saw an average of 2.6 goals per match in recent fixtures

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 home games for Rennes

The match will be played on grass

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