Match report →
Lorient – Troyes1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lorient
1.50
Total xG
2.81
Troyes
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lorient | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Bamba Dieng not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bamo Meïté not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Karim Dermane not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 64% available) |
Key factors
- Home turf advantage: Lorient is strong on artificial turf with 5 wins out of 10 matches
- Tactical setup: Lorient recently averaged a counter-oriented style with 3.0 shots on target per match
- Troyes defensive approach: The visitors recorded just 2.0 shots on target with 41% possession in their last match
Risks
- Bamba Dieng, Bamo Meïté, and Karim Dermane are missing, only 65% of the goal threat is available
- Lorient's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4
- Limited dataset for away statistics of Troyes
All probabilities
Result
Lorient40%
Draw28%
Troyes31%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Lorient or draw69%
Troyes or draw60%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lorient: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Monaco: 2 goals (85', 87')
- Lorient: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Lorient 3-4-2-1 · Troyes 4-2-3-1
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 20 D. Sylla
- 3 M. Talbi
- 32 N. Adjei
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 17 J. Makengo
- 42 M. Koné
Troyes
- 33 P. Beach
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 3 A. Ouzenadji
- 17 A. Mille
- 8 M. Diop
- 10 M. Ifnaoui
- 11 I. Gomis
- 22 H. Picard
- 20 R. Ripart
Substitutes
- 95 S. Toure
- 77 P. Katseris
- 15 T. Aiyegun
- 21 B. Kamara
- 19 S. Faye
- 10 I. Jensen
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 72 N. Mbamba
- 2 A. Georgen
- 29 K. Dermane
- 7 K. Diawara
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 5 P. Gozzi Iweru
- 26 A. Phliponeau
- 31 N. Donkor Znamensky
- 39 Y. Kone
- 37 C. Batola
- 36 I. Soukouna
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