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Ligue 1

Lorient - Troyes

08/29/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Lorient
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Troyes
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LORTRO

Lorient

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.01
Bamba Dieng not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists)
Bamo Meïté not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Karim Dermane not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 64% available)

Troyes

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lorient: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Monaco: 2 goals (85', 87')

  • 2
    Lorient: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

28%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Home turf advantage: Lorient is strong on artificial turf with 5 wins out of 10 matches
  • Tactical setup: Lorient recently averaged a counter-oriented style with 3.0 shots on target per match
  • Troyes defensive approach: The visitors recorded just 2.0 shots on target with 41% possession in their last match
Risk Factors
  • Bamba Dieng, Bamo Meïté, and Karim Dermane are missing, only 65% of the goal threat is available
  • Lorient's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4
  • Limited dataset for away statistics of Troyes
Overview

Lorient (10th place, 1 point) host Troyes (13th place, 1 point) at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Ligue 1 match on August 29, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams started the new campaign with a draw

Form

Lorient shows a form string of DWLDD

The home side recently secured an away draw against Nice

Troyes has a form string of D after the opening matchday

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lorient scored an average of 1.41 goals per game last season

The hosts conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match

Lorient recorded 7 clean sheets in 34 matches

Troyes secured a clean sheet in their opening league fixture

Head-to-Head

There are no historical head-to-head matches available in the provided dataset

Key Players

Jean-Victor Makengo leads the midfield with 4 goals and 2 assists, averaging a 6.94 rating

Arsène Kouassi provides defensive stability, contributing 2 goals and 7 assists

Noah Doriann Cadiou shows a rising form trend with an average rating of 6.81

Goalkeepers

Yvon Mvogo guards Lorient's goal with an average season rating of 6.83

The goalkeeper contributed to 7 clean sheets last season

Patrick Beach plays in goal for Troyes and kept a clean sheet in his last match

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Lorient holds a record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses on this surface

The stadium venue averages 2.8 goals per game historically

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