Match report →
Brest – Toulouse2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Brest
1.25
Total xG
2.33
Toulouse
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brest | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Junior Dina Ebimbe not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Brendan Chardonnet not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Hugo Magnetti on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Santiago Hidalgo on the bench (4 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Aron Dønnum not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Djibril Sidibé not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Pape Demba Diop not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 38% of goal output missing (only 54% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Toulouse heavily weakened: Only 54% of their goals share is active, with Santiago Hidalgo, Aron Dønnum, Djibril Sidibé, and Pape Demba Diop missing
- Toulouse's goal production is stalling, averaging 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4
- The mathematical prediction favors Brest with a 38% probability of a home win
Risks
- Brest averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Toulouse averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Brest will be without the unselected Junior Dina Ebimbe, Brendan Chardonnet, and Hugo Magnetti
All probabilities
Result
Brest38%
Draw31%
Toulouse30%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Brest or draw70%
Toulouse or draw62%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toulouse: 6 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Brest with Kamory Doumbia starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 24)
- Brest: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Brest 4-2-3-1 · Toulouse 4-2-3-1
Brest
- 1 E. Selvik
- 70 K. Lala
- 71 R. Le Guen
- 4 G. Lloris
- 2 B. Locko
- 13 J. Chotard
- 6 M. Diambou
- 10 R. Del Castillo
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 9 P. Mboup
- 19 L. Ajorque
Toulouse
- 16 G. Restes
- 94 I. Diallo
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 2 R. Nicolaisen
- 12 C. Tapé
- 6 A. Vossah
- 23 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 7 J. Vignolo
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 10 Y. Gboho
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
Substitutes
- 29 L. Tousart
- 17 M. Baldé
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 20 T. Zogbe
- 11 A. Camblan
- 30 M. Patouillet
- 7 J. Nonge Boende
- 32 M. Lainé
- 34 E. Mailly
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 22 R. Messali
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 9 S. Hidalgo Massa
- 19 D. Odogu
- 37 I. Azizi
- 11 S. Oppong
- 60 M. Niflore
- 49 A. Amaaouch
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