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Auxerre – Angers SCO1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Auxerre
1.16
Total xG
2.13
Angers SCO
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Auxerre | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.55 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Lassine Sinayoko not in squad (12 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Bryan Okoh not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gideon Mensah not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 57% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Lilian Raolisoa on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home advantage for Auxerre against a traveling side that conceded 2.15 goals per away game last season
- Attacking trends show Auxerre averaging 1.5 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.0, while Angers SCO is stalled at 0.5
- The most recent meeting at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in May 2026 ended in a clear 3:1 home win for Auxerre
Risks
- Lassine Sinayoko, Bryan Okoh, and Gideon Mensah are missing for Auxerre, leaving only 59% of the usual attacking threat available
- Low offensive output for the visitors, who recently averaged only 2.6 shots on target per match
All probabilities
Result
Auxerre39%
Draw33%
Angers SCO29%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Double chance
Auxerre or draw71%
Angers SCO or draw62%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
12%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Angers SCO: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Auxerre 4-3-3 · Angers SCO 4-2-3-1
Auxerre
- 23 M. Diop
- 27 L. Sy
- 20 S. Diomande
- 35 E. Legros
- 92 C. Akpa
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 5 K. Danois
- 21 R. Faivre
- 10 D. Loader
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary
Angers SCO
- 1 A. Lopes
- 2 C. Arcus
- 4 O. Camara
- 21 J. Lefort
- 17 J. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 14 Y. Belkdim
- 8 B. van den Boomen
- 18 J. Allevinah
- 10 M. Sbai
- 26 A. Bermont
- 19 A. El Ouazzani
Substitutes
- 14 T. Bair
- 13 T. Siwe
- 22 F. Oppegard
- 7 J. Casimir
- 1 P. Nardi
- 17 P. Ekwah Elimby
- 32 R. Kwedi Mandengue
- 34 L. Dioubaté
- 77 A. Zossou
- 40 O. Pona
- 24 E. Biumla Bayiha
- 9 P. Peter
- 20 M. Louãr
- 11 D. Harouna
- 36 B. Diatta
- 7 M. Simbakoli
- 34 M. Gernigon
- 37 J. Bouffandeau
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