Premier League
Brentford - Brighton & Hove Albion
02/21/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
29%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Strong form vs. poor form: Brentford have won 3 of their last 5 games, while Brighton have lost 4 of their last 5.
- Home strength meets away weakness: Brentford's solid home defense (0.81 goals conceded) faces Brighton's weak away defense (1.82 goals conceded).
- Brighton's offensive struggles: According to stats, Brighton's goal production has dropped significantly (currently 0.4 goals per game vs. a season average of 1.4), minimizing their chances of scoring.
Risk Factors
- Head-to-head record: The historical record of the last five matches slightly favors Brighton with two wins.
- Brentford's declining offense: Brentford are also currently scoring fewer goals (1.2) than their season average (1.6), which could lead to a tight match.
Overview
Brentford (7th place, 40 points) host Brighton & Hove Albion (14th place, 31 points) at the Gtech Community Stadium
Premier League match on February 21, 2026, 3:00 PM
Brentford is fighting for a European spot, while Brighton aims to stabilize in mid-table
Form
Brentford are showing strong form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches
Form: LWWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Brighton, on the other hand, is in a crisis with only one draw and 4 losses from their last 5 games, including three consecutive defeats
Form: LDLLL
Statistics
Brentford are very stable defensively at home, conceding only 0.81 goals per game on average
In attack, they score 1.5 goals per home match
Brighton are vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.82 goals
In 17 of Brighton's 26 league games, both teams scored
Head-to-Head
The record of the last 5 head-to-head encounters is balanced
Brighton has won 2 matches, Brentford 1, with 2 draws
The goal difference is also even at 6:6
Key Players
For Brentford, striker Igor Thiago is the central figure in attack with 17 goals this season
He is supported by Dango Ouattara (5 goals, 1 assist) and midfielder Vitaly Janelt (1 goal, 4 assists)
For Brighton, Danny Welbeck is the most dangerous attacker with 8 goals
Pascal Groß sets the tempo in midfield, while defensive leader Lewis Dunk organizes the backline
Goalkeepers
The goalkeepers are Caoimhín Kelleher for Brentford and Bart Verbruggen for Brighton
Kelleher has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Verbruggen has managed this in 5 matches
Influences
The Gtech Community Stadium is a fortress for Brentford, where they concede only 0.81 goals per game defensively
The last five home games have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.4 goals
Brighton must overcome their significant defensive weakness away from home (1.82 goals conceded per game)