Match report →
Strasbourg – Lens2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Strasbourg
1.40
Total xG
2.63
Lens
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Strasbourg | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | −0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Diego Moreira not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Martial Godo not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Julio Enciso not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Guela Doué on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Valentín Barco not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Samir El Mourabet not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ben Chilwell not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ismaël Doukouré not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Abdoul Ouattara not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 64% of goal output missing (only 24% available) | ||
| Odsonne Édouard not in squad (12 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Adrien Thomasson not in squad (3 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Mamadou Sangaré not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Saud Abdulhamid not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 47% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad limitations: Strasbourg has only 24% of its usual starting XI goal threat available due to injuries and selection
- Defensive pressure: Lens averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Strasbourg's 2.8
- Absences for Lens: The visitors are also depleted with only 48% of their usual starting XI offensive strength available
Risks
- Top scorer J. Panichelli is sidelined due to injury after scoring 16 goals in 27 appearances
- Strasbourg's goal production is faltering recently at just 0.8 goals per match compared to a season average of 1.7
- Lens' strong offense currently scores 2.8 goals per match, exceeding their season average of 2.1
All probabilities
Result
Strasbourg39%
Draw29%
Lens31%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Strasbourg or draw69%
Lens or draw61%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lens: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lens: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Strasbourg 4-3-3 · Lens 3-4-2-1
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 16 G. Antwi
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 2 A. Omobamidele
- 24 L. Høgsberg
- 23 D. Lobão Sousa
- 21 P. Diop
- 10 G. Reyna
- 80 G. Yassine
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
- 11 S. Nanasi
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 3 M. Nawrocki
- 25 P. Ganiou
- 31 S. Sagnan
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 14 M. Udol
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 29 F. Ivanović
- 19 A. Sima
Substitutes
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 19 F. Uri Baldé
- 14 S. Mara
- 17 M. Amougou
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 28 T. Noubissie
- 15 M. Del Blanco
- 45 B. Brantlind
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 4 N. Čelik
- 21 A. Haidara
- 18 R. Fofana
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 9 T. Hazard
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 38 M.Soares
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