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Ligue 1

Strasbourg - Lens

08/29/2026, 03:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Strasbourg
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Lens
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
STRLEN

Strasbourg

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.28
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap)
-0.19
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.19
Diego Moreira not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists)
Martial Godo not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists)
Julio Enciso not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)
Guela Doué on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Valentín Barco not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Samir El Mourabet not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Ben Chilwell not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Ismaël Doukouré not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Abdoul Ouattara not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
64% of goal output missing (only 24% available)

Lens

Attack strength (1.2x league average)
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.21
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Odsonne Édouard not in squad (12 goals, 3 assists)
Adrien Thomasson not in squad (3 goals, 10 assists)
Mamadou Sangaré not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Saud Abdulhamid not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 47% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lens: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Lens: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 21)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Squad limitations: Strasbourg has only 24% of its usual starting XI goal threat available due to injuries and selection
  • Defensive pressure: Lens averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Strasbourg's 2.8
  • Absences for Lens: The visitors are also depleted with only 48% of their usual starting XI offensive strength available
Risk Factors
  • Top scorer J. Panichelli is sidelined due to injury after scoring 16 goals in 27 appearances
  • Strasbourg's goal production is faltering recently at just 0.8 goals per match compared to a season average of 1.7
  • Lens' strong offense currently scores 2.8 goals per match, exceeding their season average of 2.1
Overview

Strasbourg hosts Lens at the Stade de la Meinau

Ligue 1 match on August 29, 2026, 4:15 PM

Clash between bottom-placed Strasbourg (18th place, 0 points) and third-placed Lens (3rd place, 3 points)

The hosts are under pressure after an opening defeat

Form

Strasbourg's current form is LWLLL

The home team has suffered three consecutive defeats

Lens arrives with a form of WLWLW

The visitors won their last match 5-2

Statistics

Strasbourg scored an avg. of 1.71 goals per game last season while conceding 1.38

Lens scored an avg. of 1.94 goals per match and conceded 1.03

On the road, the visitors conceded an average of 1.38 goals

The mathematical model calculates a 55% probability of both teams scoring

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 recent head-to-head matches between the teams

The record is balanced with 1 win for Strasbourg and 1 win for Lens alongside 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on February 27, 2026

Key Players

Sebastian Nanasi (7 goals, 2 assists) and Andrew Omobamidele anchor the hosts

Gessime Yassine provides offensive drive from the wings

For the visitors, Florian Thauvin shines with 11 season goals and 6 assists alongside Matthieu Udol

Abdallah Sima contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in 21 appearances

Goalkeepers

Filip Jørgensen starts in goal for the home side

Robin Risser, who made 33 appearances last season, features for Lens

The visitors secured 12 clean sheets in the previous campaign

Influences

Stade de la Meinau saw an average of 4.0 goals per game recently

The venue featured over 2.5 goals in 80% of those matches

The historical head-to-head record at this ground is balanced with one win for each team

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