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Ligue 1

LOSC Lille - Paris Saint Germain

08/28/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
LOSC Lille
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Paris Saint Germain
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
LLPSG

LOSC Lille

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.26
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez-Pardo not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists)
Thomas Meunier not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Paris Saint Germain

Attack strength (1.27x league average)
-0.22
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Ousmane Dembélé not in squad (10 goals, 7 assists)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists)
Nuno Mendes not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
JoĂŁo Neves not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
58% of goal output missing (only 52% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    LOSC Lille: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

31%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Only 52% of the goal threat available, without Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ©, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Nuno Mendes, and JoĂŁo Neves
  • Lille has recently averaged more goals with 1.8 per game compared to their season average of 1.5
  • The mathematical analysis puts Lille slightly ahead with a 37% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Lille's historical inferiority against Paris Saint Germain with no wins in the last 4 head-to-head matches
  • Absence of M. Fernandez Pardo on Lille's side due to a yellow card suspension
Overview

LOSC Lille (3rd place, 3 points) host Paris Saint Germain (9th place, 1 point)

Ligue 1 match on August 28, 2026, 8:45 PM at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy

An early clash of top contenders on matchday two

Form

Lille is in strong form with the form string WLWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 4 wins and 1 loss across their last 5 matches

Paris Saint Germain has the form string WWDDD

The visitors registered 2 wins and 3 draws in their recent outings

Statistics

Lille scored an average of 1.53 goals and conceded 1.09 goals per game over the season

At home, Lille averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded

Paris Saint Germain averaged 2.18 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded overall

In away matches, Paris scored an average of 2.2 goals and conceded 1.13 goals

Head-to-Head

There are 4 head-to-head matches recorded in the database

Lille has not won a single game, with 1 draw and 3 wins for Paris Saint Germain

The goal difference stands at 3:11 against Lille

Their last meeting ended in a 3-0 victory for Paris Saint Germain on January 16, 2026

Key Players

Benjamin André commands the midfield with a strong 7.15 season rating

HĂĄkon Arnar Haraldsson shines with 8 goals this season

Romain Perraud contributed 3 goals and 4 assists from defense

Vitinha leads the PSG midfield with a 7.51 season rating and 7 assists

Désiré Doué stands out with 7 goals and 4 assists

Achraf Hakimi is in rising form, contributing 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Berke Özer guards the net for Lille with a 6.84 rating and 13 clean sheets this season

Matvey Safonov starts for Paris Saint Germain with a 7.01 rating and has contributed to 18 clean sheets

Influences

The game will be played on grass at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy

The venue has averaged 2.2 goals per game over the last 5 matches played here

Lille remains highly competitive at home with a 24:17 goal record across 16 home games

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