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Ligue 108/28/2026, 06:45 PM

LOSC Lille – Paris Saint Germain2 : 2

Why the model thinks so

LOSC Lille
1.23
Total xG
2.37
Paris Saint Germain
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorLOSC LilleParis Saint Germain
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.26
Attack strength (1.27x league average)−0.22
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)−0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)−0.07
MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez-Pardo not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists)
Thomas Meunier not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Ousmane Dembélé not in squad (10 goals, 7 assists)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists)
Nuno Mendes not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
JoĂŁo Neves not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
58% of goal output missing (only 52% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.4 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Only 52% of the goal threat available, without Ousmane DembĂ©lĂ©, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Nuno Mendes, and JoĂŁo Neves
  • Lille has recently averaged more goals with 1.8 per game compared to their season average of 1.5
  • The mathematical analysis puts Lille slightly ahead with a 37% home win probability

Risks

  • Lille's historical inferiority against Paris Saint Germain with no wins in the last 4 head-to-head matches
  • Absence of M. Fernandez Pardo on Lille's side due to a yellow card suspension

All probabilities

Result
LOSC Lille37%
Draw31%
Paris Saint Germain32%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
LOSC Lille or draw68%
Paris Saint Germain or draw64%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%

Most likely scores

1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. LOSC Lille: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
  2. Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Lineups

LOSC Lille 4-2-3-1 · Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3

LOSC Lille
  • 1 B. Özer
  • 22 T. Santos Carvalho
  • 3 N. Ngoy
  • 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
  • 15 R. Perraud
  • 21 B. AndrĂ©
  • 6 N. Bentaleb
  • 8 E. MbappĂ© Lottin
  • 10 H. Haraldsson
  • 27 F. Sanches Correia
  • 9 O. Giroud
Paris Saint Germain
  • 39 M. Safonov
  • 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
  • 5 M. AoĂĄs CorrĂȘa
  • 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
  • 33 W. Zaire Emery
  • 17 V. Machado Ferreira
  • 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
  • 8 F. Ruiz Peña
  • 11 M. Akliouche
  • 9 F. Torres GarcĂ­a
  • 14 D. Doue
Substitutes
  • 24 C. Verdonk
  • 17 N. Mukau
  • 16 A. Bodart
  • 11 O. Sahraoui
  • 18 D. Bakwa
  • 26 I. Cossier
  • 35 S. Diaoune
  • 19 B. Onal
  • 28 G. Perrin
  • 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
  • 21 L. HernĂĄndez Pi
  • 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
  • 6 I. Zabarnyi
  • 24 S. Mayulu
  • 30 L. Chevalier
  • 12 L. Digne
  • 22 M. Godts
  • 16 A. Longoni

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