Match report →
Paris – Nice3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Paris
1.36
Total xG
2.70
Nice
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.7 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Marshall Munetsi not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jonathan Ikoné not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rudy Matondo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Hicham Boudaoui not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Morgan Sanson not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 67% available) |
Key factors
- Artificial turf advantage: Paris perform strongly on this surface (5-3-2) while Nice lost both of their previous games on turf
- Form curve: Paris show a positive trend while Nice struggled recently, averaging only 0.8 goals
- Tactical edge: Paris averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches, showing more consistent offensive threat
Risks
- Nice squad impact: Hicham Boudaoui and Morgan Sanson are missing, leaving only 67% of the usual starting goal threat available
- Defensive struggles: Nice concede an average of 1.94 goals per away match
- Low attacking threat: Nice averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Paris36%
Draw29%
Nice35%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Paris or draw65%
Nice or draw64%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Nice: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Paris 4-2-3-1 · Nice 3-4-2-1
Paris
- 1 K. Trapp
- 17 A. Camara
- 31 S. Chergui
- 42 D. Coppola
- 6 Otavio Ataide
- 20 M. Lopez
- 33 P. Lees Melou
- 10 I. Kebbal
- 7 P. Pagis
- 27 M. Simon
- 9 L. Sinayoko
Nice
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 5 M. Abdelmonem
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 92 J. Clauss
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 28 A. Witsel
- 26 M. Bard
- 7 G. Hein
- 10 S. Diop
- 29 N. N'Goumou Minpole
Substitutes
- 23 R. Matondo
- 5 M. Mbow
- 14 H. Traoré
- 4 V. Marchetti
- 16 O. Nkambadio
- 11 J. Krasso
- 28 T. De Smet
- 8 E. Zabi Gueu
- 18 O. Sissoko
- 21 I. Jansson
- 11 S. Wahi
- 33 A. Mendy
- 84 H. Koutoune
- 44 Z. Diallo
- 87 E. Pereira
- 77 T. Boulhendi
- 38 A. Camara
- 41 D. Morana
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