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Ligue 1

Paris - Nice

08/30/2026, 01:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Paris
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Nice
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PARNIC

Paris

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Rising form (1.7 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.09
Marshall Munetsi not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Jonathan Ikoné not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Rudy Matondo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Nice

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.10
Hicham Boudaoui not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Morgan Sanson not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 67% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.44
+0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Paris: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 2
    Nice: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

29%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Artificial turf advantage: Paris perform strongly on this surface (5-3-2) while Nice lost both of their previous games on turf
  • Form curve: Paris show a positive trend while Nice struggled recently, averaging only 0.8 goals
  • Tactical edge: Paris averaged 3.2 shots on target in recent matches, showing more consistent offensive threat
Risk Factors
  • Nice squad impact: Hicham Boudaoui and Morgan Sanson are missing, leaving only 67% of the usual starting goal threat available
  • Defensive struggles: Nice concede an average of 1.94 goals per away match
  • Low attacking threat: Nice averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Paris (14th place, 1 point) host Nice (13th place, 1 point) at Stade Jean Bouin

Ligue 1 match on August 30, 2026, 3:00 PM

A balanced matchup in the lower tier of the table after the opening games

Form

Paris display a more stable trend with a form of DDWDD

They recorded four draws and one win in their last five matches

Nice show a weaker form of LWLLD with three defeats

The visitors managed a draw in their most recent fixture

Statistics

Paris score an average of 1.38 goals and concede 1.47 goals per game

Nice have a weaker attack of 1.09 goals and a more vulnerable defense of 1.76 goals

Nice struggle particularly away from home, conceding an average of 1.94 goals

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in history

Paris lead the record with one win and one draw, scoring 2:1 goals

Their last meeting ended in a 1-0 home win for Paris on March 1, 2026

Key Players

Ilan Kebbal is the top threat for Paris with 9 goals and 4 assists

Moses Simon contributed 3 goals and 3 assists in 29 appearances

Pierre Lees-Melou stabilizes the midfield with an average rating of 6.87

For Nice, Jonathan Clauss stands out with 6 assists this season

Sofiane Diop has already scored 8 goals for the visitors

Melvin Bard adds 2 goals from defense

Not named in the squad for Paris: Marshall Munetsi, Jonathan Ikoné, and Rudy Matondo

Goalkeepers

Kevin Trapp guards the Paris goal with an average rating of 6.81 and 4 home clean sheets

Yehvann Diouf plays for Nice, making 26 appearances with a rating of 7.01

Influences

The game will be played on artificial turf at Stade Jean Bouin

Paris have a solid record on this surface with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

Nice lost both of their previous matches on artificial turf, conceding 4 goals and scoring 1

Stade Jean Bouin history suggests high scoring with an average of 3.6 goals per game

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