Match report →
Angers SCO – Rennes1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Angers SCO
0.95
Total xG
2.26
Rennes
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Angers SCO | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.54 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 6, 7 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 13, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Lilian Raolisoa on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Rennes' strong offense (season average 1.74 goals) meets a vulnerable Angers defense, supported by a 43% mathematical probability for an away win
- Rennes averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches and controlled the game with 56% average possession
- Historical dominance with three Rennes wins in four meetings and a clean away victory in their last direct duel
Risks
- Defensive instability for Rennes with an average of 1.94 goals conceded per away match
- Angers SCO averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Angers SCO25%
Draw31%
Rennes43%
Double chance
Angers SCO or draw57%
Rennes or draw75%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
12%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Rennes: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Rennes: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 11 games)
Lineups
Angers SCO 4-2-3-1 · Rennes 4-1-4-1
Angers SCO
- 1 A. Lopes
- 2 C. Arcus
- 4 O. Camara
- 21 J. Lefort
- 17 J. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 14 Y. Belkdim
- 8 B. van den Boomen
- 18 J. Allevinah
- 10 M. Sbai
- 26 A. Bermont
- 19 A. El Ouazzani
Rennes
- 30 B. Samba
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 24 A. Rouault
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 21 V. Rongier
- 10 L. Blas
- 17 S. Szymański
- 45 M. Camara
- 11 M. Al Tamari
- 9 E. Lepaul
Substitutes
- 40 O. Pona
- 24 E. Biumla Bayiha
- 9 P. Peter
- 27 L. Rao-Lisoa
- 20 M. Louãr
- 11 D. Harouna
- 36 B. Diatta
- 7 M. Simbakoli
- 34 M. Gernigon
- 70 A. Nordin
- 18 M. Nagida
- 90 I. Soumaré
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 5 G. Calisto Oliveira
- 22 B. Dia
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 16 N. Lemaître
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