šŸ‡«šŸ‡·

Ligue 1

Nice - Le Mans

09/05/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Nice
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Le Mans
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
NICLM

Nice

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.48
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average)
-0.09
Melvin BardĀ  not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Hicham Boudaoui not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Morgan Sanson not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match)

Le Mans

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.43
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.37
+0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nice: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

29%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Le Mans averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Nice's average of 3.4
  • Squad impact: Nice is missing Melvin Bard, Hicham Boudaoui, and Morgan Sanson, reducing their active assists share to 75%
  • Nice's goal drought: The home side is still waiting for their first goal of the season after 2 matches
Risk Factors
  • High defensive risk: Le Mans conceded an average of 2.5 goals per game this season
  • Nice's offensive decline: The team scored fewer goals recently (avg. 0.75) compared to their season average of 1.05
  • Limited data: No head-to-head matches are available between the teams in the provided dataset
Overview

Nice (17th place, 1 point) host Le Mans (13th place, 1 point) at the Allianz Riviera

Ligue 1 match on September 5, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams are looking for their first win of the season

Form

Nice with a form record of WLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team recently suffered a 0-3 loss against Paris and a 0-0 draw against Lorient

Le Mans has a record of DL

The visitors recently lost 2-3 to Rennes following a 2-2 draw with Brest

Statistics

Nice scored 37 goals in 34 matches (avg. 1.09 per game) and conceded 60 goals (avg. 1.76 per game)

Nice's home record stands at avg. 1.12 goals scored and avg. 1.59 conceded

Le Mans scored 4 goals in 2 matches (avg. 2.00 per game) and conceded 5 goals (avg. 2.50 per game)

Away from home Le Mans conceded 3 goals in their single match so far

Key Players

Sofiane Diop scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists this season with an average rating of 6.97

Jonathan Clauss provided 6 assists and scored 1 goal in 30 appearances with a rating of 7.12

Elye Wahi has 5 season goals and 1 assist from 14 games

Goalkeepers

Yehvann Diouf played 26 matches in goal for Nice this season with an average rating of 7.01

Ewan Hatfout is in the starting lineup for Le Mans

Influences

The match takes place at the Allianz Riviera on grass

The historical record at this venue shows an average of 1.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the historical home matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.