Match report →
Nice – Le Mans1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Nice
1.29
Total xG
2.64
Le Mans
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nice | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.48 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Melvin Bard not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Hicham Boudaoui not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Morgan Sanson not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Le Mans averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Nice's average of 3.4
- Squad impact: Nice is missing Melvin Bard, Hicham Boudaoui, and Morgan Sanson, reducing their active assists share to 75%
- Nice's goal drought: The home side is still waiting for their first goal of the season after 2 matches
Risks
- High defensive risk: Le Mans conceded an average of 2.5 goals per game this season
- Nice's offensive decline: The team scored fewer goals recently (avg. 0.75) compared to their season average of 1.05
- Limited data: No head-to-head matches are available between the teams in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Nice34%
Draw29%
Le Mans37%
Double chance
Nice or draw63%
Le Mans or draw66%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nice: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
Lineups
Nice 3-4-2-1 · Le Mans 3-1-4-2
Nice
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 5 M. Abdelmonem
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 92 J. Clauss
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 28 A. Witsel
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 29 N. N'Goumou Minpole
- 10 S. Diop
- 11 S. Wahi
Le Mans
- 1 E. Hatfout
- 15 N. Boissé
- 16 R. Torrente Navarro
- 5 H. Voyer
- 8 A. Lauray
- 26 R. Bamba
- 11 A. Bourabaa
- 10 J. Vercruysse
- 22 L. Calodat
- 14 L. Mafouta
- 25 D. Guèye
Substitutes
- 9 M. Amoura
- 7 G. Hein
- 21 I. Jansson
- 2 A. Abdi
- 33 A. Mendy
- 87 E. Pereira
- 77 T. Boulhendi
- 38 A. Camara
- 41 D. Morana
- 13 H. Diallo
- 7 B. Brahimi
- 23 D. Traoré
- 76 Y. Larouci
- 29 L. Bretelle
- 17 S. Yohou
- 18 L. Buadés
- 9 A. Rabillard
- 55 A. Delbecque
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