Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain - Monaco
09/04/2026, 07:05 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.8
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
League
The Lab
- 1Monaco: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- 2Monaco: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)
- 3Monaco with Mamadou Coulibaly starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (10/7 games, last 23)
- 4Paris Saint Germain: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
- 5Paris Saint Germain: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against LOSC Lille: 2 goals (90+1', 90+5')
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
26%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Defensive contrast: Paris Saint Germain conceded an average of only 0.63 goals at home, whereas Monaco conceded an average of 2.07 goals in away matches
- Offensive approach: Paris Saint Germain averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches, while Monaco averaged 5.4 shots on target in their past games
- Mathematical prediction: The prediction model calculates a 56% probability for a home victory for Paris Saint Germain
Risk Factors
- Away defense vulnerability: Monaco concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away match
- Draw streak: Paris Saint Germain ended each of their last four matches with a draw
Overview
Paris Saint Germain host Monaco at the Parc des Princes
Ligue 1 match on September 4, 2026, 9:05 PM
The hosts sit in 12th place, while Monaco arrive in 2nd place
The prediction model estimates a home win probability of 56%
Form
Form of Paris Saint Germain: WDDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The hosts enter the match on a streak of four consecutive draws
Form of Monaco: WWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The visitors travel with a perfect streak of five consecutive wins
Monaco currently score more frequently averaging 2.4 goals compared to their season average
Statistics
Paris Saint Germain scored an average of 2.18 goals per game this season
Their defense conceded an average of 0.85 goals per match
Monaco averaged 1.76 goals scored per game this season
In away matches, the visitors conceded an average of 2.07 goals
Head-to-Head
5 head-to-head matches in the database
Both teams have recorded 2 wins each, with 1 draw
The goal difference stands at 10:9 in favor of Paris Saint Germain
The last encounter ended in a 1:3 win for Monaco on March 6, 2026
Key Players
Vitinha impresses with a season average rating of 7.51
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has recorded eight goals with a rating of 7.28
Lamine Camara leads the visitors with a season rating of 7.24
Aleksandr Golovin scored one goal in his last four matches with a rating of 7.23
Not nominated: Ousmane Dembélé (10 goals / 7 assists), Nuno Mendes (4 goals / 5 assists)
Goalkeepers
Matvey Safonov has played 15 matches (rating of 7.01)
Lukas Hradecky has made 17 appearances (rating of 6.68)
Paris Saint Germain kept a total of 18 clean sheets this season
Monaco recorded 7 clean sheets in this campaign
Influences
The match will be played on grass at the Parc des Princes
Stadium statistics show a high goal average of 4.0 goals per game
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of matches played at this venue
Paris Saint Germain concede only 0.63 goals per home game