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Paris Saint Germain – Monaco1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Paris Saint Germain
1.81
Total xG
2.75
Monaco
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris Saint Germain | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Ousmane Dembélé on the bench (10 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Nuno Mendes not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 91% available) |
Key factors
- Defensive contrast: Paris Saint Germain conceded an average of only 0.63 goals at home, whereas Monaco conceded an average of 2.07 goals in away matches
- Offensive approach: Paris Saint Germain averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches, while Monaco averaged 5.4 shots on target in their past games
- Mathematical prediction: The prediction model calculates a 56% probability for a home victory for Paris Saint Germain
Risks
- Away defense vulnerability: Monaco concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away match
- Draw streak: Paris Saint Germain ended each of their last four matches with a draw
All probabilities
Result
Paris Saint Germain56%
Draw26%
Monaco18%
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw82%
Monaco or draw44%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monaco: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Monaco: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)
- Monaco with Mamadou Coulibaly starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (10/7 games, last 23)
- Paris Saint Germain: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
- Paris Saint Germain: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against LOSC Lille: 2 goals (90+1', 90+5')
Lineups
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-1-2 · Monaco 4-2-3-1
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 5 M. Aoás Corrêa
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 11 M. Akliouche
- 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
- 14 D. Doue
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 15 E. Dier
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 8 L. Camara
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 28 M. Coulibaly
- 10 A. Golovin
- 17 S. Idumbo Muzambo
- 29 P. Brunner
Substitutes
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 9 F. Torres García
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 24 S. Mayulu
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 10 O. Dembélé
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 22 M. Godts
- 11 M. Abline
- 14 M. Bieveth
- 16 P. Köhn
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 4 J. Teze
- 49 I. Touré
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 46 A. Soubeir
- 47 S. Benzahra
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