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Ligue 1

Le Havre - Brest

09/05/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Le Havre
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Brest
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

10%

0:0

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
LHBRE

Le Havre

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.67
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.05
Issa Soumaré not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists)
Sofiane Boufal not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Arouna Sangante not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 46% available)
Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match)

Brest

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Romain Del Castillo not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists)
Junior Dina Ebimbe not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.37
+0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brest with Kamory Doumbia starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 24)

  • 2
    Le Havre: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

  • 3
    Ludovic Ajorque: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Brest: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

30%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Only 47% of the seasonal goal threat is available for Le Havre without Issa SoumarĂ©, Sofiane Boufal and Arouna Sangante
  • Offensive output: Le Havre averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model estimates a 43% probability for an away win by Brest
Risk Factors
  • Defensive weakness: Brest concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game this season
  • Lack of offensive power: Le Havre averaged only 1.0 goals per game over their last 5 matches
Overview

Le Havre (15th place, 1 point) host Brest (11th place, 2 points) at the Stade Océane

Ligue 1 match on September 5, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams are looking for their first win of the season

Form

Le Havre has the form DLDLD with 0 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Brest shows the form LLLDD with 2 draws and 3 losses

Both teams are still waiting for a three-point win in this phase

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Le Havre scores an average of 0.94 goals per game and concedes 1.29 goals

Brest averages 1.26 goals scored but concedes an average of 2.67 goals away

In Le Havre's home history, games averaged 2.4 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Brest leads the record of the last 4 head-to-head matches with 3 wins

Le Havre won only 1 match, with a goal difference of 1 to 5

The last meeting on March 8, 2026, ended in a 2-0 win for Brest

Key Players

Rassoul Ndiaye (4 goals, 4 assists, rating 6.97) controls the midfield

Ally Samatta (2 goals, 1 assist) and Simon Ebonog (1 goal) support the attack

Ludovic Ajorque (8 goals, 9 assists, rating 7.16) is Brest's most dangerous attacker

Kamory Doumbia (5 goals, 4 assists) and Mama Baldé (2 goals, 2 assists) strengthen the offense

Goalkeepers

Lionel Mpasi-Nzau is in goal for Le Havre with an average rating of 7.33

Egil Selvik starts in goal for Brest

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at Stade Océane

The historical goal average at this stadium is 2.4 goals per game

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