Match report →
Le Havre – Brest1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Le Havre
1.08
Total xG
2.48
Brest
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Le Havre | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.67 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Issa Soumaré not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Sofiane Boufal not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Arouna Sangante not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Romain Del Castillo not in squad (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Junior Dina Ebimbe not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Only 47% of the seasonal goal threat is available for Le Havre without Issa Soumaré, Sofiane Boufal and Arouna Sangante
- Offensive output: Le Havre averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Model prediction: The mathematical model estimates a 43% probability for an away win by Brest
Risks
- Defensive weakness: Brest concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game this season
- Lack of offensive power: Le Havre averaged only 1.0 goals per game over their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Le Havre27%
Draw30%
Brest43%
Double chance
Le Havre or draw57%
Brest or draw73%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
10%
0:0
10%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brest with Kamory Doumbia starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 24)
- Le Havre: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Ludovic Ajorque: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Brest: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Le Havre 3-4-2-1 · Brest 4-2-3-1
Le Havre
- 77 L. Mpasi-Nzau
- 15 A. Seko
- 6 J. Mwanga
- 5 A. Touba
- 12 E. Jelert Kristensen
- 26 S. Ebonog
- 7 A. Richardson
- 32 T. Pembele
- 14 R. N'Diaye
- 25 M. Samatta
- 9 J. Maja
Brest
- 1 E. Selvik
- 70 K. Lala
- 71 R. Le Guen
- 4 G. Lloris
- 2 B. Locko
- 13 J. Chotard
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 17 M. Baldé
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 9 P. Mboup
- 19 L. Ajorque
Substitutes
- 93 G. Gallon
- 78 D. Mosengo
- 38 R. Fofana
- 44 I. Bouneb
- 27 E. Koffi Vinette
- 30 S. Nakamura
- 23 V. Sasso
- 17 K. Mizuta
- 20 D. Ouziad
- 11 N. Edjouma
- 29 L. Tousart
- 18 J. Bourgault
- 20 T. Zogbe
- 30 M. Patouillet
- 7 J. Nonge Boende
- 32 M. Lainé
- 10 G. Versini
- 39 D. N´Guessan
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