Match report →
Lens – Lorient0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lens
2.04
Total xG
2.99
Lorient
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lens | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Odsonne Édouard on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Adrien Thomasson not in squad (3 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Mamadou Sangaré not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Saud Abdulhamid not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Bamba Dieng not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Théo Le Bris on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Arthur Avom on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: Lens are scoring more frequently recently averaging 2.4 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
- Away vulnerability: Lorient concede an average of 2.17 goals per away game
- Tactical metrics: Lens averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Squad impact: Lens are missing key players like Odsonne Édouard with only 66% of their active goals share available
- Squad impact: Lorient are playing without Bamba Dieng leaving only 58% of their active goals share available
All probabilities
Result
Lens61%
Draw23%
Lorient16%
Double chance
Lens or draw84%
Lorient or draw39%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lens: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lens: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Lens 3-4-2-1 · Lorient 3-4-2-1
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 32 K. Antonio
- 25 P. Ganiou
- 14 M. Udol
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 21 A. Haidara
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 9 T. Hazard
- 19 A. Sima
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 20 D. Sylla
- 3 M. Talbi
- 32 N. Adjei
- 77 P. Katseris
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 72 N. Mbamba
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 17 J. Makengo
- 42 M. Koné
Substitutes
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 11 O. Édouard
- 24 J. Gradit
- 29 F. Ivanović
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 31 S. Sagnan
- 38 M.Soares
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 15 T. Aiyegun
- 21 B. Kamara
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 19 S. Faye
- 10 I. Jensen
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 2 A. Georgen
- 18 I. Baldé
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