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Ligue 1

Lens - Lorient

09/05/2026, 03:15 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Lens
2.0
Total xG
3.0
Lorient
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
LENLOR

Lens

Attack strength (1.41x league average)
+0.51
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap)
+0.07
Odsonne Édouard on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists)
Adrien Thomasson not in squad (3 goals, 10 assists)
Mamadou Sangaré not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Saud Abdulhamid not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

Lorient

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap)
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.12
Bamba Dieng not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists)
Théo Le Bris on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Arthur Avom on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
53% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.45
+0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lens: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Lens: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 21)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

23%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: Lens are scoring more frequently recently averaging 2.4 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
  • Away vulnerability: Lorient concede an average of 2.17 goals per away game
  • Tactical metrics: Lens averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact: Lens are missing key players like Odsonne Édouard with only 66% of their active goals share available
  • Squad impact: Lorient are playing without Bamba Dieng leaving only 58% of their active goals share available
Overview

Lens host Lorient at Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Ligue 1 match on September 5, 2026, 5:15 PM

Lens are in 7th place with 3 points

Lorient occupy 14th place with 1 point

Form

Lens show a form string of LWLWL with 2 wins and 3 losses

In their last match Lens suffered a 1-2 defeat against Strasbourg

Lorient enter with a form of WLDDL including 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses

Their most recent game ended in a 1-2 defeat to Troyes

Statistics

Lens averaged 1.94 goals scored per game this season

At home Lens concede only 0.72 goals on average

Lorient score an average of 1.41 goals per game

Away from home Lorient concede an average of 2.17 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches in the database

Both teams won 1 match each in an even record

The goal ratio is 4:2 in favor of Lens

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 win for Lorient on March 14, 2026

Key Players

Florian Thauvin scored 11 goals and provided 6 assists this season

Matthieu Udol contributed 1 goal and 7 assists

Ismaëlo Ganiou has scored 3 goals with an average rating of 6.99

Arsène Kouassi stands out for Lorient with 2 goals and 7 assists

Jean-Victor Makengo has recorded 4 goals and 2 assists

Noah Doriann Cadiou contributed 3 goals and 1 assist so far

Goalkeepers

Robin Risser guards the goal for Lens with an average rating of 6.86

Yvon Mvogo plays in goal for Lorient with a rating of 6.83

Lens secured 12 clean sheets this season while Lorient recorded 7

Influences

The match is played on a grass surface

Matches at Stade Bollaert-Delelis averaged 3.6 goals per game

The BTTS rate at this venue stands at 60%

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