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Olympique Lyonnais – Auxerre3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Olympique Lyonnais
1.30
Total xG
2.24
Auxerre
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Olympique Lyonnais | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.54 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Malick Fofana not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ruben Kluivert not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sinaly Diomandé on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bryan Okoh not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Romain Faivre on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 61% of goal output missing (only 45% available) |
Key factors
- Severe squad issues for Auxerre: Only 45% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with key players Sinaly Diomandé, Bryan Okoh, and Romain Faivre missing from the lineup
- Tactical dominance: Lyon averaged 6.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Form gap: 4th-placed Lyon faces bottom-of-the-table Auxerre, who suffered two consecutive defeats
Risks
- Home win probability predicted at 43%, representing a moderate risk for a direct home victory
- Auxerre currently scores an average of 1.4 goals per game, which is higher than their season average of 1.0
- Auxerre's defense concedes an average of 1.69 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Olympique Lyonnais43%
Draw32%
Auxerre25%
Double chance
Olympique Lyonnais or draw75%
Auxerre or draw57%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
12%
2:0
9%
2:1
8%
3:1
Final score
Lineups
Olympique Lyonnais 4-3-2-1 · Auxerre 4-2-3-1
Olympique Lyonnais
- 1 D. Greif
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 20 F. Bacher
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 23 T. Morton
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 10 P. Šulc
- 17 L. Openda
Auxerre
- 23 M. Diop
- 27 L. Sy
- 15 C. Makosso
- 35 E. Legros
- 92 C. Akpa
- 5 K. Danois
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 10 D. Loader
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary
- 9 C. Archer
Substitutes
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 18 K. Merah
- 40 R. Descamps
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 45 R. Himbert
- 26 K. Boudache
- 36 T. Devernois
- 20 S. Diomande
- 7 J. Casimir
- 1 P. Nardi
- 21 R. Faivre
- 17 P. Ekwah Elimby
- 32 R. Kwedi Mandengue
- 34 L. Dioubaté
- 77 A. Zossou
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