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Ligue 1

Olympique Lyonnais - Auxerre

09/04/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Olympique Lyonnais
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Auxerre
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
OLAUX

Olympique Lyonnais

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.54
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Ainsley Maitland-Niles not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Malick Fofana not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Ruben Kluivert not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Auxerre

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap)
-0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average)
+0.12
Sinaly Diomandé on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Bryan Okoh not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Romain Faivre on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
61% of goal output missing (only 45% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

32%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad issues for Auxerre: Only 45% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with key players Sinaly Diomandé, Bryan Okoh, and Romain Faivre missing from the lineup
  • Tactical dominance: Lyon averaged 6.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Form gap: 4th-placed Lyon faces bottom-of-the-table Auxerre, who suffered two consecutive defeats
Risk Factors
  • Home win probability predicted at 43%, representing a moderate risk for a direct home victory
  • Auxerre currently scores an average of 1.4 goals per game, which is higher than their season average of 1.0
  • Auxerre's defense concedes an average of 1.69 goals per away match
Overview

Olympique Lyonnais hosts Auxerre at the Groupama Stadium

Ligue 1 match on September 4, 2026, 7:00 PM

Lyon sits in 4th place with 4 points from 2 matches

Auxerre travels as the bottom team with 0 points

The hosts enter this matchup as clear favorites

Form

Lyon shows solid form with a WDWLD record

Most recently they played out a 1-1 draw against Le Havre

Auxerre arrives with a LWDLL form

The visitors suffered two consecutive defeats recently

Statistics

Lyon scores an average of 1.58 goals per home match

Their home record shows a stable defense with 0.95 goals conceded per game

Auxerre concedes an average of 1.69 goals in away matches

The visitors score an average of just 1.00 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches historically

Lyon leads the record with 2 wins and 2 draws

The last direct meeting ended in a 3-2 victory for Lyon

Auxerre is still waiting for their first win against Lyon

Key Players

Corentin Tolisso shines with 11 goals and 4 assists this season

Pavel Sulc has already contributed 10 goals and 3 assists

Ernest Nuamah shows rising form with one goal in recent matches

For the visitors, Danny Namaso is a threat with 3 goals and 3 assists

Kévin Danois has recorded 3 goals and one assist in midfield

Defender Lamine Sy scored once in the last five games

Goalkeepers

Dominik Greif guards the goal for Lyon and kept 8 clean sheets

Mamadou Diop starts in goal for Auxerre

Auxerre has kept only 9 clean sheets in total this season

Influences

The Groupama Stadium features a high average of 3.6 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of matches at this venue

The home advantage strongly favors Lyon with only 0.95 goals conceded

The match will be played on grass

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