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Olympique Marseille – Paris2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Olympique Marseille
1.61
Total xG
2.43
Paris
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Olympique Marseille | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.88 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Rising form (2.3 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.27 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang not in squad (10 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Moses Simon on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marshall Munetsi not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jonathan Ikoné not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rudy Matondo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 55% probability and expects 1.61 goals for Marseille
- Marseille averaged 5.0 shots on target with 59.4% possession in recent matches
- Paris scored more frequently recently with an average of 2.33 goals compared to their season average of 1.44
Risks
- Marseille scored only 1.40 goals on average recently compared to their season average of 1.85
- Paris averaged only 3.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Olympique Marseille55%
Draw28%
Paris18%
Double chance
Olympique Marseille or draw82%
Paris or draw46%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:0
13%
2:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Olympique Marseille: 75% of all goals in the second half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
- Paris: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Olympique Marseille: 2 goals (82', 90+4')
- Olympique Marseille: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Strasbourg: 2 goals (89', 90+6')
Lineups
Olympique Marseille 4-1-4-1 · Paris 3-4-2-1
Olympique Marseille
- 1 J. de Lange
- 22 T. Weah
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 77 A. Harit
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 7 A. Gomes
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 9 A. Gouiri
Paris
- 1 K. Trapp
- 31 S. Chergui
- 42 D. Coppola
- 14 H. Traoré
- 17 A. Camara
- 20 M. Lopez
- 33 P. Lees Melou
- 15 L. Koleosho
- 10 I. Kebbal
- 7 P. Pagis
- 9 L. Sinayoko
Substitutes
- 18 A. Meité
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 11 N. Maupay
- 13 D. Cornelius
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 29 F. Pemi Moumbagna
- 42 N. Kamissoko
- 23 R. Matondo
- 5 M. Mbow
- 4 V. Marchetti
- 16 O. Nkambadio
- 11 J. Krasso
- 27 M. Simon
- 25 Y. Koré
- 8 E. Zabi Gueu
- 18 O. Sissoko
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