Ligue 1
Olympique Marseille - Paris
09/06/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.4
0.8
1:1
13%1:0
13%2:0
11%0:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Olympique Marseille
Paris
League
The Lab
- 1Paris: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- 2Olympique Marseille: 75% of all goals in the second half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
- 3Paris: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Olympique Marseille: 2 goals (82', 90+4')
- 4Olympique Marseille: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Strasbourg: 2 goals (89', 90+6')
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
28%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 55% probability and expects 1.61 goals for Marseille
- Marseille averaged 5.0 shots on target with 59.4% possession in recent matches
- Paris scored more frequently recently with an average of 2.33 goals compared to their season average of 1.44
Risk Factors
- Marseille scored only 1.40 goals on average recently compared to their season average of 1.85
- Paris averaged only 3.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
Overview
Olympique Marseille hosts Paris at the Stade VĂ©lodrome
Ligue 1 match on September 6, 2026, 6:45 PM
Marseille is currently in 10th place with 3 points
Paris travels as the 6th-placed team with 4 points
A highly anticipated mid-table clash in Ligue 1
Form
Marseille's recent form is WLLWL
The home side recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their recent games
Paris is in stable form with DWDDW
The visitors achieved 2 wins and 3 draws in their last outings across all competitions
Statistics
Marseille scores an average of 1.85 goals and concedes 1.32 goals per match this season
At home Marseille averages 1.86 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded
Paris averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded this season
Away from home Paris concedes an average of 1.64 goals while scoring 1.36
Head-to-Head
There have been 2 head-to-head matches between these teams
Marseille registered 1 win while Paris has not won a match yet
1 game ended in a draw
The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw
Marseille scored 7 goals in total while Paris scored 4 goals
Key Players
Amine Gouiri has scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists this season
Igor PaixĂŁo has contributed 6 goals and 5 assists with a rising form trend of 7.27 in his last 5 appearances
Ilan Kebbal is a key attacking threat for Paris with 9 goals and 4 assists
Not in the starting lineup for Marseille: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Not in the starting lineup for Paris: Moses Simon, Marshall Munetsi, Jonathan Ikoné, Rudy Matondo
Goalkeepers
Jeffrey de Lange has made 5 league appearances with an average rating of 6.51
Marseille has achieved 9 clean sheets this season
Kevin Trapp has played 22 matches with an average rating of 6.81
Paris has recorded 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
Marseille is defensively stronger at home conceding only 0.91 goals per match compared to 2.08 on the road
Historical statistics favour Marseille at the Stade VĂ©lodrome