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Troyes – Strasbourg2 : 6
Why the model thinks so
Troyes
1.48
Total xG
2.72
Strasbourg
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Troyes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| Diego Moreira not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Martial Godo not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Julio Enciso not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Samir El Mourabet not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ben Chilwell not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Abdoul Ouattara not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 65% of goal output missing (only 30% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 31% of attacking threat available, without Diego Moreira, Martial Godo, Julio Enciso, Samir El Mourabet, Ben Chilwell, Abdoul Ouattara
- Troyes played very counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging 37% possession
- Strasbourg's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
Risks
- Troyes averaged only 2.0 shots on target per match in recent games
- Strasbourg concede an average of 1.75 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Troyes41%
Draw29%
Strasbourg30%
Double chance
Troyes or draw70%
Strasbourg or draw59%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
2:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Strasbourg: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Troyes 4-2-3-1 · Strasbourg 4-3-3
Troyes
- 33 P. Beach
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 3 A. Ouzenadji
- 17 A. Mille
- 8 M. Diop
- 10 M. Ifnaoui
- 29 K. Dermane
- 22 H. Picard
- 20 R. Ripart
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 16 G. Antwi
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 6 I. Doukoure
- 36 J. Martínez Gauna
- 23 D. Lobão Sousa
- 21 P. Diop
- 10 G. Reyna
- 80 G. Yassine
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
- 11 S. Nanasi
Substitutes
- 11 I. Gomis
- 9 J. Le Douaron
- 7 K. Diawara
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 23 T. NKada
- 26 A. Phliponeau
- 31 N. Donkor Znamensky
- 39 Y. Kone
- 41 E. Carneiro
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 40 C. Harder
- 24 L. Høgsberg
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 26 O. Kellyman
- 14 D. Luis Essugo
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 28 T. Noubissie
- 45 B. Brantlind
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