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Ligue 1

Troyes - Strasbourg

09/06/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 6
Expected Goals
Troyes
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Strasbourg
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
TROSTR

Troyes

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.06
Full strength squad available

Strasbourg

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.16
Diego Moreira not in squad (4 goals, 7 assists)
Martial Godo not in squad (10 goals, 1 assists)
Julio Enciso not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)
Samir El Mourabet not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Ben Chilwell not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Abdoul Ouattara not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
65% of goal output missing (only 30% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Strasbourg: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

29%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Only 31% of attacking threat available, without Diego Moreira, Martial Godo, Julio Enciso, Samir El Mourabet, Ben Chilwell, Abdoul Ouattara
  • Troyes played very counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging 37% possession
  • Strasbourg's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.7
Risk Factors
  • Troyes averaged only 2.0 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Strasbourg concede an average of 1.75 goals per away game
Overview

Troyes host Strasbourg on September 6, 2026, at 3:00 PM

The hosts currently sit in 7th place with 4 points

Strasbourg travel as the 12th-placed team with 3 points

A tight Ligue 1 encounter is expected

Form

Troyes are undefeated this season with a DW form

The home side recorded 1 win and 1 draw in their recent matches

Strasbourg show a form of WLLLW

The visitors recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last matches

Statistics

Troyes score an average of 1.0 goals per game this season

The hosts have conceded an average of 0.5 goals so far

Strasbourg have a season average of 1.71 goals scored

On the road, the visitors concede an average of 1.75 goals per match

The mathematical model predicts 1.48 goals for Troyes and 1.24 goals for Strasbourg

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Complexe Sportif de l'Aube NĀ° 2

The stadium statistics show an average of 0.0 goals per game

The home advantage could play a role for Troyes with a calculated home win probability of 41%

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