Match report →
Toulouse – LOSC Lille0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Toulouse
1.14
Total xG
2.17
LOSC Lille
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toulouse | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Yann Gboho not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Aron Dønnum not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Djibril Sidibé not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Pape Demba Diop not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 49% available) | ||
| Félix Correia not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Romain Perraud on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Thomas Meunier not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Critical squad depletion: Toulouse is missing key starters Yann Gboho, Aron Dønnum, Djibril Sidibé, and Pape Demba Diop, leaving only 49% of their usual goal threat available
- Offensive tactical advantage: Lille averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Toulouse's average of only 3.0
- Historical dominance: Lille won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches, including a comprehensive 4-0 away victory in their last visit to Toulouse
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability for Toulouse: The hosts conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match recently, which is higher than their season average of 1.39
- Limited offensive threat: Toulouse averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games, restricting their scoring opportunities
All probabilities
Result
Toulouse36%
Draw33%
LOSC Lille31%
Double chance
Toulouse or draw69%
LOSC Lille or draw64%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
11%
0:1
10%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LOSC Lille: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Toulouse: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- LOSC Lille: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- LOSC Lille: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Toulouse: 69% of all goals in the first half (9 of 13, last 12 games)
Lineups
Toulouse 4-2-3-1 · LOSC Lille 4-2-3-1
Toulouse
- 16 G. Restes
- 22 R. Messali
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 2 R. Nicolaisen
- 12 C. Tapé
- 23 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 6 A. Vossah
- 9 S. Hidalgo Massa
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 37 I. Azizi
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 22 T. Santos Carvalho
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 21 B. André
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 8 E. Mbappé Lottin
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 11 O. Sahraoui
- 9 O. Giroud
Substitutes
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 7 J. Vignolo
- 18 M. Amougou
- 20 C. Tengstedt
- 14 N. Sigur
- 94 I. Diallo
- 11 S. Oppong
- 60 M. Niflore
- 17 N. Mukau
- 15 R. Perraud
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 18 A. Ueda
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 26 I. Cossier
- 19 B. Onal
- 28 G. Perrin
- 12 O. Gill
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