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Ligue 1

Toulouse - LOSC Lille

09/03/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Toulouse
1.1
Total xG
2.2
LOSC Lille
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
TOULL

Toulouse

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.28
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Yann Gboho not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists)
Aron DĂžnnum not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Djibril Sidibé not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Pape Demba Diop not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
58% of goal output missing (only 49% available)

LOSC Lille

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.04
FĂ©lix Correia not in squad (4 goals, 5 assists)
Romain Perraud on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Thomas Meunier not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    LOSC Lille: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Toulouse: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    LOSC Lille: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    LOSC Lille: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Toulouse: 69% of all goals in the first half (9 of 13, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

33%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad depletion: Toulouse is missing key starters Yann Gboho, Aron DĂžnnum, Djibril SidibĂ©, and Pape Demba Diop, leaving only 49% of their usual goal threat available
  • Offensive tactical advantage: Lille averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to Toulouse's average of only 3.0
  • Historical dominance: Lille won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches, including a comprehensive 4-0 away victory in their last visit to Toulouse
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability for Toulouse: The hosts conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match recently, which is higher than their season average of 1.39
  • Limited offensive threat: Toulouse averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games, restricting their scoring opportunities
Overview

Toulouse (16th place, 1 point) host LOSC Lille (3rd place, 4 points) at the Stadium de Toulouse

Ligue 1 match on September 3, 2026, 8:45 PM

Lille enter as favorites while Toulouse desperately need points after a slow start

Form

Toulouse Form: WWLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Lille Form: LWWWD

Lille shows positive form with 3 wins and 1 draw in recent games

Toulouse recorded a 2-2 draw against Brest in their last game after suffering two consecutive losses

Statistics

Toulouse averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.39 goals conceded per season

In home matches, Toulouse averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

Lille averages 1.53 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded this season

Away from home, Lille averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Lille won all 4 encounters with a total goal difference of 10-3

The last direct duel ended in a 4-0 away win for Lille on April 12, 2026

Key Players

Rasmus Nicolaisen played 32 matches with 1 goal and shows a rising form trend (delta +0.26)

Cristian CĂĄsseres Jr. contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in 30 season appearances with a rating of 7.09

Santiago Hidalgo recorded 4 goals and 6 assists across 28 appearances

HĂĄkon Arnar Haraldsson scored 8 goals and provided 2 assists in 32 matches with a rating of 7.07

Olivier Giroud registered 7 goals and 1 assist in 30 games with an average rating of 6.82

Benjamin André played 27 matches contributing 2 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.15

Goalkeepers

Guillaume Restes made 33 appearances with an average rating of 6.77 and recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Berke Özer played 32 matches with an average rating of 6.84 and kept 13 clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage for Toulouse with an average of 1.39 goals scored in home matches

The Stadium de Toulouse has a historical average of 2.8 goals scored per game

Both teams scored in 40% of historical venue matches, with Over 2.5 goals occurring in 60% of games

Lille shows strong offensive presence on the road, averaging 1.56 away goals per match

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