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Ligue 1

Strasbourg - Monaco

09/12/2026, 03:15 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Strasbourg
1.8
Total xG
3.0
Monaco
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
STRMON

Strasbourg

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.42
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.07
Samir El Mourabet on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 39% available)

Monaco

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.16
Mamadou Coulibaly not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.54
+0.54
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Monaco: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)

  • 2
    Monaco: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 3
    Strasbourg: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    Strasbourg: 7 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Monaco: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (8 of 25)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Only 40% of the goal threat available, without Samir El Mourabet
  • Form gap: Monaco arrives with a 5-game winning streak and currently scores more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.9)
  • The mathematical model favors Strasbourg with a 75% probability for a home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Strasbourg's top scorer J. Panichelli is missing due to a cruciate ligament tear
  • Monaco shows defensive vulnerability on the road, conceding an average of 2.07 goals per away match
Overview

Strasbourg hosts Monaco at the Stade de la Meinau

Ligue 1 match on September 12, 2026, 4:15 PM

Monaco arrives in 2nd place with 9 points

Strasbourg currently sits in 6th place with 6 points

A key clash in the upper part of the table

Form

Strasbourg form: LLLWW

Two consecutive wins in recent matches

Monaco form: WWWWW

Five consecutive wins for the away side

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Strasbourg averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per season

At home, they averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded

Monaco averaged 1.76 goals scored and 1.59 goals conceded per season

In away matches, Monaco conceded an average of 2.07 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in history

1 win for Strasbourg, 2 wins for Monaco, and 1 draw

Goal difference of 8 to 10 from Strasbourg's perspective

The last encounter ended 5-4 for Strasbourg

Key Players

Sebastian Nanasi has recorded 7 goals and 2 assists in 19 appearances

Gessime Yassine scored 2 goals in his last 4 matches

Ismaël Doukouré stabilizes the defense with a season rating of 6.68

Aleksandr Golovin shines with 5 goals and 5 assists this season

Lamine Camara impresses with a strong average rating of 7.24

Denis Zakaria contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 24 games

Goalkeepers

Filip Jørgensen is in goal for Strasbourg

Lukas Hradecky guards the goal for Monaco

Strasbourg has kept 9 clean sheets this season

Monaco has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass

Stade de la Meinau has recently seen an average of 3.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 home matches

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of the last 5 games at this stadium

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