Match report →
Strasbourg – Monaco1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Strasbourg
1.76
Total xG
2.99
Monaco
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Strasbourg | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Samir El Mourabet on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 39% available) | ||
| Mamadou Coulibaly not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 87% available) |
Key factors
- Only 40% of the goal threat available, without Samir El Mourabet
- Form gap: Monaco arrives with a 5-game winning streak and currently scores more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.9)
- The mathematical model favors Strasbourg with a 75% probability for a home win or draw
Risks
- Strasbourg's top scorer J. Panichelli is missing due to a cruciate ligament tear
- Monaco shows defensive vulnerability on the road, conceding an average of 2.07 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Strasbourg48%
Draw26%
Monaco25%
Double chance
Strasbourg or draw75%
Monaco or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monaco: 7 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (88% win rate)
- Monaco: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Strasbourg: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Strasbourg: 7 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Monaco: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (8 of 25)
Lineups
Strasbourg 4-3-3 · Monaco 4-2-3-1
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 16 G. Antwi
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 6 I. Doukoure
- 36 J. Martínez Gauna
- 23 D. Lobão Sousa
- 21 P. Diop
- 10 G. Reyna
- 80 G. Yassine
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
- 11 S. Nanasi
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 15 E. Dier
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 8 L. Camara
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 46 A. Soubeir
- 10 A. Golovin
- 17 S. Idumbo Muzambo
- 29 P. Brunner
Substitutes
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 40 C. Harder
- 29 S. El Mourabet
- 24 L. Høgsberg
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 14 D. Luis Essugo
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 28 T. Noubissie
- 45 B. Brantlind
- 11 M. Abline
- 22 M. Karim
- 14 M. Bieveth
- 16 P. Köhn
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 19 P. Cabral
- 49 I. Touré
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 47 S. Benzahra
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