Match report →
Le Mans – Lens2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Le Mans
1.04
Total xG
2.91
Lens
1.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Le Mans | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.61 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Ismaëlo Ganiou on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Clear model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 55% probability for an away win by Lens
- Attacking drive of the visitors: Lens averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Defensive contrast: Le Mans concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Lens remains more stable defensively
Risks
- Fatigue factor for Lens: The visitors enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Unfamiliar surface: Played on artificial turf, where Lens has a balanced record of 1 win and 1 loss
- Limited data availability regarding head-to-head matches between the two teams
All probabilities
Result
Le Mans19%
Draw25%
Lens55%
Double chance
Le Mans or draw45%
Lens or draw81%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
10%
1:3
6%
0:3
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lens: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Lens: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 22)
- Lens: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Le Mans 3-1-4-2 · Lens 3-4-2-1
Le Mans
- 1 E. Hatfout
- 15 N. Boissé
- 17 S. Yohou
- 5 H. Voyer
- 29 L. Bretelle
- 26 R. Bamba
- 11 A. Bourabaa
- 10 J. Vercruysse
- 22 L. Calodat
- 14 L. Mafouta
- 25 D. Guèye
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 24 J. Gradit
- 32 K. Antonio
- 14 M. Udol
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 19 A. Sima
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 11 O. Édouard
Substitutes
- 13 H. Diallo
- 19 D. Sidibé
- 16 R. Torrente Navarro
- 7 B. Brahimi
- 23 D. Traoré
- 76 Y. Larouci
- 98 N. Kocik
- 8 A. Lauray
- 9 A. Rabillard
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 4 N. Čelik
- 21 A. Haidara
- 20 J. Todibo
- 29 F. Ivanović
- 9 T. Hazard
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 28 J. Kadile
- 38 M.Soares
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →