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Ligue 1

Le Mans - Lens

09/13/2026, 03:15 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Le Mans
1.0
Total xG
2.9
Lens
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

10%

1:3

6%

0:3

6%
What influences the xG?
LMLEN

Le Mans

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.61
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.48

Lens

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.07
Ismaëlo Ganiou on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lens: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Lens: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 22)

  • 3
    Lens: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

19%

Draw

25%

Away Win

55%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

45%

Away or Draw

81%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Clear model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 55% probability for an away win by Lens
  • Attacking drive of the visitors: Lens averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Defensive contrast: Le Mans concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Lens remains more stable defensively
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor for Lens: The visitors enter the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Unfamiliar surface: Played on artificial turf, where Lens has a balanced record of 1 win and 1 loss
  • Limited data availability regarding head-to-head matches between the two teams
Overview

Le Mans (15th place, 2 points) host Lens (11th place, 3 points) at the Stade de La Pincenardière

Ligue 1 match on September 13, 2026, 4:15 PM

The away team enters as the favorite

Form

Le Mans is still waiting for their first win of the season with form DLD

In 3 league matches, the home side has 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Lens travels with a form of LWLLW, recording 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 competitive games

Most recently, the visitors secured a win against Slavia Praha

Statistics

Le Mans scores an average of 1.67 goals per game while conceding 2.0 goals

The visitors from Lens have a season average of 1.94 goals scored and 1.03 goals conceded

The home team had both teams score in all 3 of their league matches so far

Lens ended their away matches with an average of 1.94 goals scored and 1.38 conceded

Key Players

Florian Thauvin scores 11 goals and provides 6 assists in 33 appearances for Lens

Odsonne Édouard contributes 12 goals and 3 assists in 29 appearances for the visitors

Matthieu Udol records 1 goal and 7 assists across 34 matches

Not nominated for Lens: Ismaëblo Ganiou (3 goals)

Goalkeepers

Ewan Hatfout starts in goal for Le Mans, recording 0 clean sheets so far this season

On the other side, Robin Risser is in goal for Lens, boasting 12 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at the Stade de La Pincenardière

Le Mans has a record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses on this surface

Lens shows a record of 1 win and 1 loss on artificial turf

The only game played at this stadium this season ended with an average of 4.0 goals per game

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