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Ligue 1

Paris - Olympique Lyonnais

09/12/2026, 06:45 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Paris
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Olympique Lyonnais
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PAROL

Paris

Rising form (2.5 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.15
Moses Simon not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)

Olympique Lyonnais

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.05
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Paris: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 2
    Paris: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Olympique Marseille: 2 goals (82', 90+4')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

30%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Paris is currently scoring more frequently (2.5) than their season average (1.5)
  • Olympique Lyonnais recently averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Clear advantage for Paris on artificial turf with 6 wins from 10 games while Lyon remains winless
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
  • Lyon concedes an average of 1.47 goals away compared to 0.95 at home
  • Paris concedes an average of 1.35 goals per game at home
Overview

Paris host Olympique Lyonnais at the Stade Jean Bouin

Ligue 1 match on September 12, 2026, 8:45 PM

Both teams are level on points in 3rd and 4th place with 7 points each

The mathematical analysis calculates an away win probability of 43%

Form

Paris shows strong form WDDWW with 3 wins and 2 draws recently

Olympique Lyonnais displays form DWLDW with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Form legend: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Paris averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per match this season

At home their average is 1.4 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Lyon scored an average of 1.56 goals while conceding 1.18 per game

Away from home Lyon concedes an average of 1.47 goals with 1.53 scored

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between these teams so far

Both games ended in a draw with a balanced goal difference of 4-4

The last meeting on March 8, 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Ilan Kebbal stands out with 9 goals and 4 assists (Rating 7.37)

Pierre Lees-Melou contributed 1 goal and 3 assists so far

Luca Koleosho recorded 3 goals and 1 assist this season

Corentin Tolisso shines with 11 goals and 4 assists (Rating 7.28)

Pavel Sulc scored 10 goals and provided 3 assists so far

Abner has 3 goals and 2 assists with a 6.86 rating

Moses Simon (3 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated for the hosts

Goalkeepers

Kevin Trapp played 22 league matches with a 6.81 rating and 8 clean sheets

Dominik Greif played 29 matches in goal (Rating 6.96) with 15 clean sheets in total

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at the Stade Jean Bouin

Paris has 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses on artificial turf

Lyon recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss on this surface

Historically this venue averages 3.2 goals per game

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