Match report →
Paris – Olympique Lyonnais0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Paris
1.10
Total xG
2.53
Olympique Lyonnais
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.30 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Moses Simon not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Paris is currently scoring more frequently (2.5) than their season average (1.5)
- Olympique Lyonnais recently averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Clear advantage for Paris on artificial turf with 6 wins from 10 games while Lyon remains winless
Risks
- Limited data availability regarding weather conditions
- Lyon concedes an average of 1.47 goals away compared to 0.95 at home
- Paris concedes an average of 1.35 goals per game at home
All probabilities
Result
Paris28%
Draw30%
Olympique Lyonnais43%
Double chance
Paris or draw57%
Olympique Lyonnais or draw72%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris: 3 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Paris: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Olympique Marseille: 2 goals (82', 90+4')
Lineups
Paris 4-2-3-1 · Olympique Lyonnais 4-2-3-1
Paris
- 1 K. Trapp
- 17 A. Camara
- 31 S. Chergui
- 42 D. Coppola
- 14 H. Traoré
- 20 M. Lopez
- 33 P. Lees Melou
- 10 I. Kebbal
- 7 P. Pagis
- 15 L. Koleosho
- 9 L. Sinayoko
Olympique Lyonnais
- 1 D. Greif
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 20 F. Bacher
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 23 T. Morton
- 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 10 P. Šulc
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 17 L. Openda
Substitutes
- 23 R. Matondo
- 5 M. Mbow
- 93 N. Ikoné
- 4 V. Marchetti
- 16 O. Nkambadio
- 27 M. Simon
- 25 Y. Koré
- 8 E. Zabi Gueu
- 18 O. Sissoko
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 18 K. Merah
- 40 R. Descamps
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 26 K. Boudache
- 11 K. Nakamura
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