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Ligue 1

Lorient - Toulouse

09/12/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Lorient
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Toulouse
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LORTOU

Lorient

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.19
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.04
Théo Le Bris on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Arthur Avom on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Toulouse

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.79
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.18
Yann Gboho not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 51% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toulouse: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Squad impact for Toulouse: Only 52% of the usual starting XI threat is available with Yann Gboho missing
  • Tactical setup: Lorient recently averaged 3.2 shots on target with 51.4% possession in their last games
  • Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 75% probability for the double chance Lorient or Draw
Risk Factors
  • Squad weakness for Lorient: ThĂ©o Le Bris and Arthur Avom are missing, leaving only 65% of the goal threat available
  • Stagnant attack: Both teams' goalscoring is currently stalling at an average of 0.8 goals per match recently
  • Low threat creation: Lorient averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their recent matches
Overview

Lorient host Toulouse at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir

Ligue 1 match on September 12, 2026, 6:45 PM

Lorient are in 8th place with 4 points, while Toulouse sit in 17th place with 1 point

Both sides look to establish stability in the early stage of the season

Form

Lorient's form is LDDLW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

They secured a 1-0 away victory against Lens in their last match

Toulouse travel with a form of WLLDL including 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

They suffered a 0-1 home defeat against Lille in their previous game

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lorient score an average of 1.41 goals and concede 1.14 goals per home game

Toulouse average 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded on the road

Lorient have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats on artificial turf

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches recorded between these teams

Toulouse won once, while one encounter ended in a draw

The last meeting on March 21, 2026, resulted in a 1-0 victory for Toulouse

Key Players

ArsĂšne Kouassi has contributed 2 goals and 7 assists for Lorient

Jean-Victor Makengo has recorded 4 goals and 2 assists this season

Cristian CĂĄsseres Jr. leads Toulouse's midfield with 3 assists and a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

Yvon Mvogo guards the net for Lorient with a season average rating of 6.83

Mathys Niflore starts in goal for Toulouse

Lorient have kept 7 clean sheets this season, compared to Toulouse's 9 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.8 goals per match at this stadium

The mathematical model predicts 1.43 goals for Lorient and 1.00 for Toulouse

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