Match report →
Lorient – Toulouse2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lorient
1.43
Total xG
2.42
Toulouse
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lorient | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.79 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Théo Le Bris on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Arthur Avom on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Yann Gboho not in squad (8 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 57% of goal output missing (only 51% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad impact for Toulouse: Only 52% of the usual starting XI threat is available with Yann Gboho missing
- Tactical setup: Lorient recently averaged 3.2 shots on target with 51.4% possession in their last games
- Mathematical prediction: The model calculates a 75% probability for the double chance Lorient or Draw
Risks
- Squad weakness for Lorient: Théo Le Bris and Arthur Avom are missing, leaving only 65% of the goal threat available
- Stagnant attack: Both teams' goalscoring is currently stalling at an average of 0.8 goals per match recently
- Low threat creation: Lorient averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Lorient45%
Draw30%
Toulouse25%
Double chance
Lorient or draw75%
Toulouse or draw55%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toulouse: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Lorient 3-4-2-1 · Toulouse 4-2-3-1
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 20 D. Sylla
- 3 M. Talbi
- 32 N. Adjei
- 77 P. Katseris
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 72 N. Mbamba
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 17 J. Makengo
- 18 I. Baldé
Toulouse
- 60 M. Niflore
- 22 R. Messali
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 12 C. Tapé
- 23 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 9 S. Hidalgo Massa
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 37 I. Azizi
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
Substitutes
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 15 T. Aiyegun
- 21 B. Kamara
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 19 S. Faye
- 10 I. Jensen
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 42 M. Koné
- 2 A. Georgen
- 6 A. Vossah
- 7 J. Vignolo
- 18 M. Amougou
- 20 C. Tengstedt
- 14 N. Sigur
- 19 D. Odogu
- 94 I. Diallo
- 11 S. Oppong
- 1 T. Collin
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